NBA games

OKC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
98–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2617332298
DAL22411429106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home DAL
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 37 19 5 6
Luguentz Dort S 36 18 5 3
Jaylin Williams S 31 12 10 3
Aaron Wiggins S 23 12 6 2
Cason Wallace S 37 10 6 5
Ousmane Dieng 6 8 1 1
Isaiah Joe 23 7 2 1
Alex Caruso 20 6 3 2
Kenrich Williams 20 3 6 0
Branden Carlson 7 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 39 25 5 5
Spencer Dinwiddie S 30 16 3 4
P.J. Washington S 36 16 7 5
Naji Marshall 34 14 10 1
Daniel Gafford S 20 8 6 2
Maxi Kleber 20 7 2 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 9 7 2 0
Klay Thompson S 24 6 5 3
Quentin Grimes 22 5 3 1
Dwight Powell 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
10%
6 Daniel Gafford DAL
9%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
8 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Jaylin Williams OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.4 4.8 7.4
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.4 4.3 4.2
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 6.0 6.0
4 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.5 3.8 4.8
5 P.J. Washington DAL 14.9 7.3 2.2
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.4 4.5 3.6
7 Klay Thompson DAL 12.9 3.5 2.5
8 Jaden Hardy DAL 12.0 2.8 2.5
9 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.8 4.2 1.9
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.8 3.6 1.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 10.7 3.2 3.0
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.0 6.3 1.0
13 Naji Marshall DAL 10.0 3.3 3.0
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.6 2.6 1.4
15 Alex Caruso OKC 6.5 2.9 2.1
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.0 2.3 1.2
17 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.5 4.2 1.6
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 5.4 3.1 1.7
19 Brandon Williams DAL 3.6 1.3 0.7
20 Branden Carlson OKC 3.5 2.1 0.6
21 Adam Flagler OKC 3.0 1.4 0.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.0 2.2 0.8
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 2.9 1.9 0.6
24 Alex Ducas OKC 2.7 1.3 0.5
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 2.6 0.8
26 Markieff Morris DAL 1.4 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.