NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
140–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM27354038140
SA29352226112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 30 29 8 1
Jaylen Wells S 35 22 3 2
Desmond Bane S 33 22 6 14
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 26 19 2 4
Luke Kennard S 26 17 3 4
Brandon Clarke 19 12 3 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 16 7 1 5
Zach Edey S 7 4 4 1
Jay Huff 10 4 3 1
Jake LaRavia 33 4 8 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell S 32 21 2 5
Stephon Castle S 25 20 4 4
Victor Wembanyama S 31 19 12 3
Harrison Barnes S 30 13 4 6
Charles Bassey 17 12 9 0
Keldon Johnson 23 8 2 0
Chris Paul S 29 6 2 6
Julian Champagnie 23 4 2 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 4 1 0
Zach Collins 4 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
14%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
6 Zach Edey MEM
9%
7 Chris Paul SA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Stephon Castle SA
8%
10 John Konchar MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.3 12.3 4.6
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.1 7.7 4.1
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.7 5.1 5.6
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.9 5.6 4.6
5 Harrison Barnes SA 13.1 3.4 1.9
6 Keldon Johnson SA 13.1 5.3 1.7
7 Stephon Castle SA 11.8 2.7 3.4
8 Luke Kennard MEM 11.6 3.9 4.1
9 Chris Paul SA 11.1 4.5 7.7
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.0 3.6 1.6
11 Santi Aldama MEM 10.4 5.6 1.7
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.6 3.4 3.4
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.4 2.7 1.2
14 Zach Edey MEM 8.1 8.0 1.2
15 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.4 5.0 1.0
16 Jay Huff MEM 6.4 2.0 0.9
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.3 3.4 2.3
18 Tre Jones SA 5.4 2.2 3.9
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.2 4.4 0.7
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.9 1.8 0.7
21 John Konchar MEM 3.8 4.8 1.3
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.3 1.4 2.1
23 Zach Collins SA 3.0 2.5 1.1
24 Malaki Branham SA 3.0 1.0 0.9
25 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.0 0.7 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.