NBA games

UTAH @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
123136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH22302843123
NO42193540136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home NO
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 27 26 4 3
Collin Sexton S 32 24 4 5
Drew Eubanks S 25 17 7 1
Svi Mykhailiuk S 28 16 5 2
Brice Sensabaugh 24 15 2 1
Oscar Tshiebwe 12 8 6 0
Isaiah Collier 35 8 7 11
Kyle Filipowski 11 4 2 2
Patty Mills 9 4 1 2
Elijah Harkless 18 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 30 26 5 4
Zion Williamson S 23 24 14 6
Jose Alvarado 23 19 5 6
Trey Murphy III S 36 19 4 5
Daniel Theis S 28 18 8 3
Jordan Hawkins 24 11 3 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 21 8 7 3
Dejounte Murray S 25 8 5 6
Javonte Green 24 3 3 1
Karlo Matkovic 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Svi Mykhailiuk · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Svi Mykhailiuk makes 28-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
4 CJ McCollum NO
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Javonte Green NO
7%
10 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
23%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 25.1 5.6 4.1
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.0 7.7 5.8
3 CJ McCollum NO 22.9 3.6 3.9
4 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.1 4.0 5.9
5 Dejounte Murray NO 20.7 6.3 8.4
6 Keyonte George UTAH 19.5 4.4 6.2
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 13.3 3.7 2.1
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 9.0 3.8 6.1
9 Jose Alvarado NO 8.7 1.9 3.2
10 Herbert Jones NO 8.7 3.3 3.9
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.6 2.4 2.3
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.4 2.3 1.3
13 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.8 3.1 0.9
14 Cody Williams UTAH 6.7 2.7 1.4
15 Javonte Green NO 6.5 3.7 1.2
16 Drew Eubanks UTAH 6.4 5.7 1.3
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.4 4.6 1.7
18 Patty Mills UTAH 6.1 1.5 1.6
19 Daniel Theis NO 5.9 4.6 1.1
20 Jamal Cain NO 5.3 3.3 1.1
21 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.2 2.4 0.9
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.5 3.8 1.4
23 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.5 4.7 0.3
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.4 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.