NBA games

TOR @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
112–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22353421112
MIL37353523130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MIL
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 29 21 4 10
Bruce Brown 20 17 6 0
Kelly Olynyk 19 15 4 2
Gradey Dick S 29 13 1 3
Jakob Poeltl S 22 12 10 2
Davion Mitchell S 30 10 0 3
Scottie Barnes S 35 10 8 10
Chris Boucher 15 6 6 0
Jonathan Mogbo 16 4 1 0
Jamal Shead 18 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 35 13 3
Damian Lillard S 36 26 3 8
Bobby Portis 23 15 6 0
Khris Middleton 24 13 3 5
Gary Trent Jr. 25 10 3 1
Brook Lopez S 34 9 7 5
Taurean Prince S 23 9 2 1
Ryan Rollins S 16 7 2 1
AJ Green 19 6 4 1
Stanley Umude 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
20%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
11%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
10%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
8%
9 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
10 Kelly Olynyk TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
96%
Jumper
1%
Layup
2%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.0 13.2 7.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.0 4.1 7.1
3 RJ Barrett TOR 22.6 6.7 5.9
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.4 8.5 5.3
5 Khris Middleton MIL 16.0 4.3 5.0
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.7 4.8 2.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.3 9.7 2.6
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.2 7.9 1.9
9 Gradey Dick TOR 11.5 3.4 2.0
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.4 2.9 1.3
11 Chris Boucher TOR 9.5 4.2 0.8
12 AJ Green MIL 9.2 2.7 1.5
13 Taurean Prince MIL 7.5 2.7 2.0
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.1 1.5 3.8
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.3 1.8 3.3
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.2 2.9 1.4
17 Bruce Brown TOR 6.0 3.0 1.1
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.5 2.9 1.5
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.1 1.6 1.0
20 Kelly Olynyk TOR 4.9 2.3 1.7
21 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 1.8 1.8
22 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.5 2.9 0.9
23 Chris Livingston MIL 2.8 1.6 0.7
24 Liam Robbins MIL 2.8 1.6 0.7
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.8 1.3 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.3 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.