NBA games

DEN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
133–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN30373135133
MIA24313127113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIA
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 30 7 8
Nikola Jokic S 31 24 12 10
Aaron Gordon 22 16 6 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 14 9 2
Julian Strawther 26 14 1 1
Christian Braun S 27 12 2 0
Russell Westbrook S 26 11 0 7
DeAndre Jordan 15 6 2 1
Peyton Watson 18 3 1 2
Hunter Tyson 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 22 5 4
Jimmy Butler III S 33 18 3 2
Nikola Jovic 31 16 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 33 16 11 4
Terry Rozier 24 13 7 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 9 3 3
Kel'el Ware 16 9 7 1
Duncan Robinson S 26 8 1 7
Haywood Highsmith S 13 2 0 0
Keshad Johnson 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 1-foot dunk (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
5 Russell Westbrook DEN
8%
6 Jamal Murray DEN
8%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
9 DeAndre Jordan DEN
7%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
71%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.3 14.0 11.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.6 5.5 5.4
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.0 3.7 5.9
4 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.8 7.4 7.3
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 17.2 5.7 2.1
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.9 9.1 4.1
7 Jimmy Butler III MIA 15.9 5.2 4.5
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.7 4.8 4.6
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.9 4.5 2.0
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.6 5.0 2.3
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.6 4.8 4.3
12 Terry Rozier MIA 12.5 4.4 2.7
13 Peyton Watson DEN 10.5 4.8 1.7
14 Julian Strawther DEN 10.2 2.8 1.9
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 6.0 1.2
16 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.9 2.7 3.2
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.5 4.2 2.0
18 Dario Saric DEN 5.6 3.8 1.9
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.3 1.9 1.1
20 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.7 1.6
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 5.5 0.9
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.8 1.4 2.1
23 Kevin Love MIA 4.7 2.6 1.3
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.7 1.3 0.6
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.7 1.3 0.6
26 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.6 1.8 0.4
27 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.1 1.3 0.8
28 PJ Hall DEN 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.