NBA games

MIN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
116–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN28351835116
NY2138192199

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home NY
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 36 13 7
Naz Reid 25 23 8 1
Mike Conley S 25 13 0 2
Rudy Gobert S 34 11 6 1
Jaden McDaniels S 34 10 8 2
Rob Dillingham 13 9 1 3
Julius Randle S 35 8 7 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 27 6 2 1
Jaylen Clark 1 0 1 0
Luka Garza 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 26 1 5
OG Anunoby S 38 18 10 3
Cameron Payne 13 18 2 1
Mikal Bridges S 39 15 4 5
Josh Hart S 38 12 9 0
Precious Achiuwa 36 6 9 3
Miles McBride 19 4 0 0
Jericho Sims S 19 0 5 2
Tyler Kolek 1 0 1 0
Pacome Dadiet 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mike Conley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Mike Conley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
13%
2 Josh Hart NY
11%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Julius Randle MIN
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
9 Jericho Sims NY
7%
10 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
68%
Jumper
19%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 30.5 3.6 6.9
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.3 6.2 5.1
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.9 13.0 3.6
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.9 6.8 4.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.0 3.3 2.7
6 Josh Hart NY 16.1 11.1 5.7
7 Naz Reid MIN 15.1 5.9 1.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 15.1 4.0 2.1
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.9 5.8 1.5
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 9.5 9.6 1.6
11 Miles McBride NY 7.2 2.5 2.6
12 Mike Conley MIN 7.1 2.4 3.1
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.7 2.7 2.1
14 Cameron Payne NY 6.5 1.5 2.1
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.6 3.6 0.7
16 Luka Garza MIN 3.0 0.9 0.3
17 Josh Minott MIN 2.9 1.1 0.4
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 2.9 0.7 1.3
19 Jericho Sims NY 2.9 3.1 0.6
20 Landry Shamet NY 2.9 1.0 0.6
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.8 1.2 0.4
22 Joe Ingles MIN 2.8 1.4 1.7
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.3 2.0 0.5
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.2 0.8 0.4
25 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.6 0.9 0.4
26 Tyler Kolek NY 1.5 0.5 0.5
27 Jacob Toppin NY 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.