NBA games

ORL @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
94–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL2826221894
BOS35313025121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BOS
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony S 31 23 7 0
Paolo Banchero S 29 21 4 4
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 15 9 3
Anthony Black 29 13 6 3
Trevelin Queen 22 9 4 1
Tristan da Silva S 31 5 3 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 5 1 1
Jonathan Isaac 20 3 3 1
Cory Joseph 5 0 0 0
Caleb Houstan 14 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 35 30 6 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 23 4 1
Jaylen Brown S 33 20 6 6
Derrick White S 31 12 3 2
Jrue Holiday S 29 9 6 4
Sam Hauser 17 8 1 1
Neemias Queta 11 7 3 1
Al Horford 23 6 3 2
Payton Pritchard 21 4 2 3
Luke Kornet 7 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 1-foot layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Cole Anthony ORL
9%
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.8 8.5 5.1
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 7.8 5.1
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 24.4 6.1 5.1
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.7 4.4 3.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 16.9 7.2 1.8
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.2 4.3 3.9
7 Derrick White BOS 13.8 3.6 3.0
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.5 3.4 3.4
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.8 4.4 3.7
10 Anthony Black ORL 10.8 2.7 2.8
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.3 2.3 2.2
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.6 5.4 2.1
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.6 5.8 1.5
14 Al Horford BOS 8.7 5.0 1.7
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.7 6.0 1.0
16 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.5 2.0 1.1
17 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 2.6 1.7
18 Sam Hauser BOS 5.6 2.3 1.1
19 Luke Kornet BOS 5.0 5.1 1.1
20 Jett Howard ORL 4.4 1.2 0.8
21 Neemias Queta BOS 4.3 2.5 0.5
22 Cory Joseph ORL 4.2 1.4 1.0
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 1.7 0.7
24 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.8 1.5 0.6
25 Jaden Springer BOS 2.3 1.3 0.5
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.3 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.