NBA games

HOU @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
127132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU25273342127
SAC26352942132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SAC
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 34 28 5 4
Alperen Sengun S 34 21 10 3
Amen Thompson S 41 20 10 5
Tari Eason 24 16 4 0
Dillon Brooks S 33 12 3 4
Jeff Green S 23 10 3 2
Cam Whitmore 23 9 3 3
Aaron Holiday 14 6 3 1
Steven Adams 14 5 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 38 33 5 4
Malik Monk S 37 26 3 9
Domantas Sabonis S 38 20 14 7
De'Aaron Fox S 40 19 3 7
Keegan Murray S 39 18 11 2
Keon Ellis 11 6 1 0
Kevin Huerter 9 5 1 1
Trey Lyles 19 5 5 2
Devin Carter 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Monk · Layup (2 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Malik Monk makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Malik Monk SAC
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
6%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
35%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.7 5.5 6.3
2 Jalen Green HOU 25.3 4.0 3.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 3.8 4.3
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.7 10.7 5.1
5 Malik Monk SAC 22.3 4.1 6.1
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 20.7 14.1 7.7
7 Amen Thompson HOU 15.9 10.3 3.1
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.3 3.9 1.8
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.9 5.2 1.5
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.4 3.8 1.1
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.2 5.5 1.3
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.0 6.6 1.2
13 Keon Ellis SAC 9.9 3.2 1.7
14 Trey Lyles SAC 9.4 5.7 1.4
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.5 2.5 1.6
16 Devin Carter SAC 5.4 3.4 1.5
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.3 2.5 1.0
18 Jeff Green HOU 4.2 1.7 0.6
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.4 1.0
20 Nate Williams HOU 3.8 1.3 0.6
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.8 2.0 0.6
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 5.4 0.7
23 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.3 2.0 0.8
24 Isaac Jones SAC 3.0 1.4 0.5
25 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.4 0.8
26 Doug McDermott SAC 2.7 0.4 0.3
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.