NBA games

LAC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC32203432118
POR2216282389

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home POR
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 26 23 5 3
James Harden S 29 19 2 6
Terance Mann 22 14 5 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 13 4 0
Amir Coffey 23 10 3 2
Ivica Zubac S 28 10 8 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 14 8 3 3
Kris Dunn S 19 7 6 3
Kobe Brown 7 4 2 0
Mo Bamba 17 4 7 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dalano Banton 25 23 3 1
Scoot Henderson S 32 16 2 6
Deandre Ayton S 24 14 7 1
Shaedon Sharpe S 23 12 4 4
Kris Murray 29 9 4 1
Rayan Rupert 7 5 2 1
Robert Williams III 18 4 7 2
Duop Reath 3 4 0 0
Jabari Walker 20 2 6 1
Justin Minaya 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 28-foot three point shot (Kris Dunn assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
14%
2 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Deni Avdija POR
10%
6 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
7 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
8 James Harden LAC
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
8%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
44%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell LAC 22.6 4.2 2.3
2 James Harden LAC 22.1 5.1 8.1
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.6 3.5 5.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.2 4.4 3.7
5 Deni Avdija POR 19.9 7.6 4.2
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.9 11.5 2.7
7 Scoot Henderson POR 15.2 3.3 5.7
8 Deandre Ayton POR 12.7 10.4 1.7
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.0 6.0 2.0
10 Amir Coffey LAC 11.6 3.0 1.2
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.2 3.2 3.8
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.7 3.3 1.2
13 Bones Hyland LAC 7.9 1.9 2.3
14 Kris Dunn LAC 7.2 3.1 2.9
15 Terance Mann LAC 7.2 2.0 1.3
16 Donovan Clingan POR 6.0 6.0 1.1
17 Dalano Banton POR 5.7 1.8 2.1
18 Kris Murray POR 5.6 2.6 1.3
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.5 5.2 0.7
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.4 3.3 1.2
21 Mo Bamba LAC 4.4 4.4 0.7
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.8 2.0 0.6
23 Duop Reath POR 3.7 1.6 0.6
24 Kai Jones LAC 3.5 2.5 0.7
25 Jordan Miller LAC 3.5 1.8 1.0
26 Kobe Brown LAC 2.9 1.9 0.4
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.2 0.5
28 Rayan Rupert POR 2.4 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.