NBA games

CLE @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
114–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE14353233114
OKC32434415134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home OKC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 24 20 2 9
Jarrett Allen S 16 13 7 0
Ty Jerome 16 12 3 4
Sam Merrill 12 9 2 3
Caris LeVert 20 9 3 3
Craig Porter Jr. 7 8 1 3
Donovan Mitchell S 21 8 2 2
Isaac Okoro 23 7 3 1
Dean Wade S 25 6 5 1
Georges Niang 14 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 40 3 8
Luguentz Dort S 20 22 2 2
Jalen Williams S 30 19 6 5
Isaiah Joe 21 12 3 0
Branden Carlson 17 11 4 0
Alex Caruso 14 10 1 2
Cason Wallace S 27 6 6 2
Jaylin Williams S 14 5 5 1
Aaron Wiggins 33 4 5 3
Ousmane Dieng 9 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot dunk (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
13%
3 Darius Garland CLE
13%
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
11%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
7 Cason Wallace OKC
9%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Dean Wade CLE
7%
10 Isaiah Joe OKC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
36%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
17%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.2 5.0 6.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 23.9 3.1 7.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.3 4.2 4.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 21.6 8.6 3.4
5 Jalen Williams OKC 19.8 5.4 6.2
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 17.0 10.2 2.2
7 Aaron Wiggins OKC 12.6 4.2 1.9
8 Cason Wallace OKC 10.3 2.9 2.9
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.2 3.8 1.7
10 Caris LeVert CLE 9.3 3.3 2.8
11 Max Strus CLE 8.8 3.7 2.9
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.7 2.6 1.4
13 Ty Jerome CLE 6.9 2.1 2.4
14 Dean Wade CLE 6.8 5.3 1.4
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.8 2.3 1.9
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.8 2.8 2.2
17 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 2.4 1.2
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.3 4.1 2.1
19 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.2 1.9 1.3
20 Sam Merrill CLE 5.2 1.6 1.2
21 Alex Ducas OKC 3.5 1.4 0.7
22 JT Thor CLE 2.8 0.9 0.3
23 Branden Carlson OKC 2.7 1.7 0.7
24 Adam Flagler OKC 2.7 1.2 0.7
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.2 2.7 0.3
27 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.2 0.9 0.6
28 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.