NBA games

PHX @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
130–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX34353526130
WSH21342840123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home WSH
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 37 3 5
Kevin Durant S 33 23 6 3
Grayson Allen 28 21 5 0
Ryan Dunn S 30 18 11 1
Tyus Jones S 31 9 3 10
Royce O'Neale 22 9 4 2
Mason Plumlee S 17 6 9 4
Monte Morris 15 4 2 7
Bol Bol 4 3 1 0
Oso Ighodaro 21 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyshawn George 31 24 4 4
Jordan Poole S 26 18 4 4
Alex Sarr S 28 16 9 2
Corey Kispert 28 14 3 5
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 13 3 2
Jonas Valanciunas 15 11 8 1
Justin Champagnie 10 10 3 0
Bub Carrington S 26 6 4 3
Jared Butler 12 6 2 2
Kyle Kuzma S 27 5 5 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Devin Booker makes layup (Mason Plumlee assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
6 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
49%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.3 6.3 5.4
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.4 4.5 8.3
3 Jordan Poole WSH 23.0 4.4 5.1
4 Alex Sarr WSH 13.9 6.8 2.8
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.7 4.8 3.7
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH 12.5 4.9 2.8
7 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.7 8.5 2.5
8 Corey Kispert WSH 11.4 2.7 1.9
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 11.0 5.2 1.4
10 Grayson Allen PHX 10.9 3.5 1.9
11 Tyus Jones PHX 10.7 2.9 4.7
12 Bub Carrington WSH 10.4 4.0 4.3
13 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.3 4.1 2.8
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 8.7 4.2 1.4
15 Jared Butler WSH 8.4 2.2 2.5
16 Kyshawn George WSH 8.3 3.5 1.8
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 6.3 7.9 2.4
18 Nick Richards PHX 6.2 5.7 1.2
19 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.6 4.2 1.3
20 Monte Morris PHX 5.4 1.8 1.2
21 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 1.7 0.5
22 Johnny Davis WSH 2.9 1.4 0.7
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.8 2.8 0.3
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.4 0.9 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.1 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.