NBA games

IND @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
111–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND29402319111
DET26302519100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home DET
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 37 28 3 1
Pascal Siakam S 39 26 7 7
Tyrese Haliburton S 34 17 4 8
Andrew Nembhard S 41 12 4 6
Aaron Nesmith S 9 9 1 0
Jarace Walker 22 8 5 1
Obi Toppin 17 7 5 0
Ben Sheppard 16 2 0 0
T.J. McConnell 14 2 5 5
Thomas Bryant 11 0 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 30 25 4 0
Cade Cunningham S 39 20 4 9
Jalen Duren S 27 17 17 0
Tobias Harris S 36 10 4 2
Ausar Thompson S 22 8 7 3
Marcus Sasser 14 6 2 4
Simone Fontecchio 18 5 2 0
Ronald Holland II 8 4 0 0
Malik Beasley 26 3 2 0
Isaiah Stewart 21 2 13 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 4-foot dunk (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Jalen Duren DET
9%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
6%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
19%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.0 5.7 8.9
2 Pascal Siakam IND 20.4 7.9 3.1
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.7 4.1 8.2
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.1 5.4 2.6
5 Malik Beasley DET 14.8 3.2 2.2
6 Myles Turner IND 14.1 6.8 1.6
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.9 5.9 2.8
8 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.0 4.7 5.4
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.3 2.5 1.8
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.0 10.1 2.3
11 Obi Toppin IND 7.9 3.5 1.1
12 Jarace Walker IND 7.9 3.0 1.4
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.7 3.1 1.1
14 Thomas Bryant IND 7.7 3.8 1.0
15 Ausar Thompson DET 7.7 5.2 1.6
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.3 3.0 1.2
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.0 2.4 4.2
18 Ronald Holland II DET 6.5 2.2 1.2
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.0 4.9 1.6
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 3.1 1.1
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.5 2.1
22 Quenton Jackson IND 3.4 1.1 1.0
23 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.4 1.1
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.4 1.6 0.9
25 RayJ Dennis IND 2.2 1.3 0.6
26 Johnny Furphy IND 2.1 1.3 0.5
27 James Johnson IND 2.0 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.