NBA games

BKN @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
67–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2114161667
LAC21374424126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home LAC
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Wilson 34 16 3 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 28 12 14 3
Tyrese Martin S 37 8 4 4
Tosan Evbuomwan 29 7 3 2
Keon Johnson S 22 6 0 0
Reece Beekman 21 5 4 3
Noah Clowney S 22 4 2 0
Ziaire Williams S 21 4 4 0
Dariq Whitehead 9 3 0 0
Nic Claxton S 17 2 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 24 23 2 0
James Harden S 23 21 6 11
Norman Powell S 22 18 1 2
Amir Coffey 31 13 5 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 19 11 3 0
Ivica Zubac S 22 11 9 4
Bones Hyland 14 9 3 5
Mo Bamba 18 7 7 1
Kai Jones 14 6 3 0
Terance Mann 8 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Norman Powell makes driving layup (Ivica Zubac assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
14%
2 Norman Powell LAC
13%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
11%
5 Keon Johnson BKN
11%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
8 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
9 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
26%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell LAC 22.4 4.2 2.3
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 21.6 4.2 4.0
3 James Harden LAC 21.6 4.7 9.2
4 Keon Johnson BKN 16.1 4.3 3.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.5 12.1 2.5
6 Nic Claxton BKN 11.6 8.1 2.0
7 Noah Clowney BKN 11.5 4.1 1.7
8 D'Angelo Russell BKN 11.5 3.1 5.0
9 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.4 4.7 2.4
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.4 3.0 1.6
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.4 2.6 1.2
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 10.1 4.7 2.1
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 10.0 3.1 3.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.9 3.3 1.3
15 Kawhi Leonard LAC 8.7 3.3 1.6
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.6 6.1 1.8
17 Kris Dunn LAC 7.5 3.1 3.1
18 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 7.0 3.2 1.0
19 Bones Hyland LAC 6.4 1.3 1.5
20 Terance Mann LAC 5.8 1.5 1.2
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.3 2.9 1.4
22 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.9 1.5 0.5
23 Mo Bamba LAC 3.9 4.3 0.7
24 Reece Beekman BKN 3.6 1.4 1.1
25 Jordan Miller LAC 3.0 1.5 1.0
26 Kai Jones LAC 1.8 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.