NBA games

MIA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
108–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA38281923108
LAL34202934117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 38 34 4 3
Haywood Highsmith S 29 12 3 1
Nikola Jovic 32 12 4 8
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 25 11 5 3
Bam Adebayo S 31 10 4 5
Alec Burks 21 8 2 0
Kel'el Ware 18 8 11 2
Duncan Robinson 22 7 2 1
Terry Rozier S 24 6 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Rui Hachimura S 33 23 8 1
Anthony Davis S 37 22 11 4
LeBron James S 38 22 5 9
Max Christie S 37 16 3 0
Austin Reaves S 35 14 3 14
Gabe Vincent 26 14 1 4
Jaxson Hayes 14 4 1 0
Dalton Knecht 14 2 2 1
Shake Milton 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes driving layup (LeBron James assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
11%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 LeBron James LAL
8%
7 Max Christie LAL
7%
8 Terry Rozier MIA
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.9 6.5 8.7
2 Tyler Herro MIA 24.4 5.4 5.6
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.1 13.1 4.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.2 5.6 8.3
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.1 9.1 4.0
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 15.7 5.7 4.2
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 4.6 3.5
8 Terry Rozier MIA 12.7 4.7 2.5
9 Max Christie LAL 12.5 3.2 2.0
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.4 4.8 3.9
11 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.3 1.5
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.7 4.2 2.1
13 Kel'el Ware MIA 9.4 5.4 1.0
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 8.9 2.5 2.9
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.8 2.6 1.2
16 Shake Milton LAL 6.7 2.2 1.8
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.3 2.4 1.5
18 Alec Burks MIA 5.7 2.3 1.0
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.7 4.3 0.8
20 Kevin Love MIA 5.2 2.7 1.2
21 Cam Reddish LAL 4.4 2.6 1.0
22 Josh Christopher MIA 3.7 1.2 1.6
23 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.4 1.3 2.4
24 Armel Traore LAL 2.9 2.9 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.8 1.9 0.3
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.2 1.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.