NBA games

CHA @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
117–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA26292537117
UTAH33292525112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home UTAH
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 36 31 13 2
LaMelo Ball S 39 27 6 9
Miles Bridges S 39 25 10 4
Brandon Miller S 33 20 5 3
Cody Martin 23 9 2 0
Josh Green S 22 3 3 1
Vasilije Micic 10 2 3 3
Nick Smith Jr. 16 0 1 4
Tidjane Salaun 14 0 1 1
Taj Gibson 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 31 26 4 6
Brice Sensabaugh 27 19 4 4
Drew Eubanks 20 11 8 3
Patty Mills 13 11 0 1
Walker Kessler S 27 11 8 1
Isaiah Collier S 27 11 3 10
Kyle Filipowski 23 8 2 2
Elijah Harkless 22 8 1 2
Cody Williams S 30 5 2 1
Micah Potter S 21 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
15%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
3 Mark Williams CHA
11%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Drew Eubanks UTAH
8%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
7 Cody Williams UTAH
7%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Seth Curry CHA
6%
10 Micah Potter UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
40%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 28.3 6.0 9.0
2 Miles Bridges CHA 22.3 8.8 4.8
3 Brandon Miller CHA 21.9 4.2 4.1
4 Keyonte George UTAH 16.9 3.7 5.3
5 Mark Williams CHA 15.2 9.7 2.6
6 Walker Kessler UTAH 11.3 11.3 1.5
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.7 3.5 1.9
8 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.5 2.4 2.4
9 Isaiah Collier UTAH 8.4 3.9 5.8
10 Cody Martin CHA 8.0 4.3 2.2
11 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.4 1.7 2.8
12 Josh Green CHA 7.1 3.4 1.4
13 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.7 4.4 1.7
14 Cody Williams UTAH 5.6 2.0 1.3
15 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.5 2.1 1.2
16 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.4 4.5 1.1
17 Seth Curry CHA 5.3 1.4 0.7
18 Tidjane Salaun CHA 5.2 3.9 1.4
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 4.8 2.2 0.8
20 Patty Mills UTAH 4.5 1.2 1.3
21 Micah Potter UTAH 3.9 2.2 0.8
22 KJ Simpson CHA 3.8 1.4 1.4
23 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.7 2.1 0.6
24 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.8 4.5 0.5
25 Taj Gibson CHA 1.8 1.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.