NBA games

HOU @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
128–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU28413326128
DEN23253327108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home DEN
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 30 34 1 5
Alperen Sengun S 26 20 9 8
Fred VanVleet S 35 16 1 8
Cam Whitmore 24 16 9 1
Amen Thompson S 35 11 9 0
Nate Williams 6 9 0 1
Jeff Green 21 8 2 0
Jae'Sean Tate 18 6 4 1
Dillon Brooks S 26 6 1 0
Steven Adams 7 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Christian Braun S 35 22 4 1
Jamal Murray S 30 22 4 5
Russell Westbrook S 25 17 4 2
Peyton Watson 23 10 3 0
Julian Strawther 25 10 1 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 24 8 3 0
Dario Saric 19 8 4 5
Hunter Tyson 8 4 2 0
Trey Alexander 6 3 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
4 Russell Westbrook DEN
11%
5 Jalen Green HOU
11%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.6 4.1 3.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.1 10.5 5.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 21.9 3.9 5.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 18.7 5.7 2.0
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.6 7.6 7.2
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.8 4.0 6.0
7 Amen Thompson HOU 15.3 10.1 3.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.0 4.2 2.1
9 Christian Braun DEN 11.8 4.3 1.8
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.7 5.2 1.5
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.6 3.6 1.2
12 Peyton Watson DEN 10.2 4.7 1.9
13 Tari Eason HOU 10.0 6.6 1.3
14 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 2.8 1.5
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 2.2 1.1
16 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 4.5 0.9
17 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.4 1.7
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.0 1.3 1.0
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.8 2.8 1.3
20 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 5.6 0.9
21 Jeff Green HOU 2.9 1.1 0.4
22 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.2 0.5
23 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 0.9 0.5
24 Trey Alexander DEN 2.4 0.9 0.6
25 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.3 1.2 0.5
26 Nate Williams HOU 2.1 0.6 0.3
27 Jock Landale HOU 1.4 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.