NBA games

MEM @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
129–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM28234335129
SA30332527115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home SA
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 33 21 3 2
Ja Morant S 31 21 4 12
Santi Aldama 27 20 10 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 19 6 2
Luke Kennard 30 15 9 3
Jay Huff 11 11 1 0
Zach Edey S 17 6 5 0
Brandon Clarke 11 5 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 21 5 1 0
Scotty Pippen Jr. 19 3 4 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephon Castle S 33 26 3 4
Devin Vassell S 34 21 5 3
Keldon Johnson 26 17 4 1
Victor Wembanyama S 37 13 12 2
Harrison Barnes S 30 10 5 2
Julian Champagnie 22 9 4 2
Chris Paul S 35 8 5 5
Tre Jones 13 6 1 3
Charles Bassey 11 5 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Ja Morant MEM
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
10%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
8%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Chris Paul SA
7%
9 Stephon Castle SA
7%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
22%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.5 12.4 4.1
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 25.4 8.5 4.3
3 Ja Morant MEM 24.4 4.9 6.8
4 Desmond Bane MEM 23.3 5.8 6.1
5 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 5.6 4.5
6 Harrison Barnes SA 12.3 3.2 1.8
7 Keldon Johnson SA 12.1 4.9 1.6
8 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.8 3.7 1.7
9 Chris Paul SA 11.6 4.3 8.1
10 Stephon Castle SA 10.4 2.6 3.1
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.3 3.3 3.7
12 Santi Aldama MEM 9.8 5.5 1.8
13 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 9.3 3.1 3.5
14 Zach Edey MEM 9.2 8.0 1.2
15 Julian Champagnie SA 9.1 3.0 1.3
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.0 3.7 2.5
17 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.5 4.6 0.9
18 Jay Huff MEM 5.3 1.9 0.7
19 Tre Jones SA 5.1 2.4 4.0
20 Charles Bassey SA 4.9 4.8 0.9
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.6 2.2 0.8
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.9 1.7 2.2
23 John Konchar MEM 3.8 5.0 1.3
24 Zach Collins SA 3.6 2.8 1.1
25 Malaki Branham SA 3.6 1.4 1.0
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.0 0.7 0.8
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.9 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.