NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
116–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27343025116
NO33302432119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford S 30 27 12 2
Jaden Hardy 25 21 5 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 38 20 5 4
P.J. Washington S 38 14 14 2
Quentin Grimes 19 14 2 2
Klay Thompson S 26 12 1 2
Naji Marshall S 30 7 2 10
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 10 1 4 1
Maxi Kleber 14 0 0 1
Brandon Williams 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 33 30 7 7
Trey Murphy III S 38 24 10 4
Javonte Green S 27 13 7 1
Jordan Hawkins 21 12 3 2
Yves Missi S 29 12 6 0
CJ McCollum S 34 11 0 2
Brandon Boston 15 9 3 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 9 4 7 1
Daniel Theis 19 2 5 1
Jose Alvarado 15 2 1 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 2-foot layup (Naji Marshall assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
18%
2 Zion Williamson NO
15%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
14%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
6 Yves Missi NO
11%
7 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
9 Quentin Grimes DAL
0%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
47%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 25.2 5.5 3.9
2 CJ McCollum NO 24.0 3.9 3.8
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.2 8.0 5.4
4 Dejounte Murray NO 20.6 6.6 7.9
5 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 15.3 3.9 5.0
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.5 4.8 4.0
7 P.J. Washington DAL 14.4 6.9 2.3
8 Klay Thompson DAL 13.6 3.9 2.7
9 Jose Alvarado NO 11.0 2.3 3.2
10 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.5 2.5 2.1
11 Naji Marshall DAL 10.0 3.6 2.3
12 Yves Missi NO 9.3 7.5 1.8
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.3 5.0 1.0
14 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.4 2.3 1.1
15 Brandon Boston NO 7.1 2.6 1.0
16 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.8 3.8 1.8
17 Javonte Green NO 6.3 3.7 1.2
18 Daniel Theis NO 6.3 5.6 1.3
19 Brandon Williams DAL 4.4 1.5 0.8
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.8 3.3 1.1
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.2 0.8
22 Dwight Powell DAL 2.8 3.0 0.9
23 Markieff Morris DAL 1.9 0.8 0.4
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.5 2.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.