NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
116–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS34213229116
MIN12303637115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 37 31 1 8
Andrew Wiggins S 35 24 5 2
Buddy Hield 29 18 1 0
Dennis Schroder S 25 12 1 3
Moses Moody 25 11 4 1
Gary Payton II 19 7 6 1
Gui Santos S 21 5 7 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 27 4 15 2
Kevon Looney 22 4 5 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 41 28 8 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 39 28 6 9
Julius Randle S 27 17 6 1
Naz Reid 29 15 6 1
Jaden McDaniels S 36 14 4 4
Rudy Gobert S 29 7 10 1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 5 1 0
Mike Conley 19 1 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Wiggins · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:42 Q1
"Andrew Wiggins makes 11-foot two point shot (Gui Santos assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
6 Stephen Curry GS
10%
7 Dennis Schroder GS
9%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Buddy Hield GS
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
33%
Jumper
20%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.7 5.8 5.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 22.8 5.3 5.9
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 7.2 5.4
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 17.0 4.6 4.0
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.0 5.7 2.0
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.6 5.0 2.4
7 Dennis Schroder GS 11.5 2.8 4.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.0 5.7 1.4
9 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 10.8 8.2 2.2
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.0 9.7 1.5
11 Buddy Hield GS 8.8 3.5 2.1
12 Mike Conley MIN 7.4 2.5 3.2
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.3 2.9 2.5
14 Moses Moody GS 7.2 1.7 0.9
15 Lindy Waters III GS 6.7 3.1 1.0
16 Kevon Looney GS 4.8 4.6 1.0
17 Luka Garza MIN 3.8 1.3 0.6
18 Tristen Newton MIN 3.7 1.3 1.6
19 Josh Minott MIN 3.6 1.6 0.7
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.6 1.6 0.7
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.5 2.7 0.6
22 Gui Santos GS 3.4 2.0 1.0
23 Gary Payton II GS 3.4 2.8 0.9
24 Joe Ingles MIN 2.9 1.4 1.8
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.6 1.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.