NBA games

ORL @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
93–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL1625272593
MIL34283030122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIL
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 26 22 5 2
Trevelin Queen 28 13 2 3
Wendell Carter Jr. S 33 12 10 1
Cole Anthony S 27 11 4 9
Anthony Black 30 10 0 4
Jonathan Isaac 15 9 3 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 23 8 2 1
Caleb Houstan 24 8 2 2
Tristan da Silva S 22 0 4 1
Cory Joseph 11 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 30 30 5 4
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 26 11 4
Khris Middleton 21 14 2 6
Bobby Portis 23 14 8 0
Brook Lopez S 31 13 5 2
Ryan Rollins 15 6 3 2
MarJon Beauchamp 5 6 1 0
Taurean Prince S 20 5 1 1
Liam Robbins 6 3 1 0
Pat Connaughton 11 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:43 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
2 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Brook Lopez MIL
10%
5 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
6 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
7 Cole Anthony ORL
7%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
95%
Jumper
1%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.0 13.3 6.8
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.5 7.4 5.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.4 4.1 6.4
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.5 4.4 3.5
5 Khris Middleton MIL 15.3 4.4 4.6
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.5 4.9 1.9
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.3 4.2 3.4
8 Bobby Portis MIL 12.3 7.8 1.9
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.0 5.6 2.3
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.6 2.4 2.3
11 Anthony Black ORL 10.3 2.5 2.7
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 9.3 5.4 1.6
13 AJ Green MIL 8.6 2.5 1.4
14 Taurean Prince MIL 7.3 2.8 1.8
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.7 5.7 1.1
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 6.2 2.8 1.2
17 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.8 2.4 1.8
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.8 1.7 1.1
19 Jett Howard ORL 5.1 1.3 0.9
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 2.9 1.3
21 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.2 2.7 1.0
22 Cory Joseph ORL 3.8 1.2 1.0
23 Delon Wright MIL 3.7 1.7 1.5
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.2 1.6 0.5
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.2 0.5
26 Chris Livingston MIL 2.2 1.2 0.4
27 Liam Robbins MIL 2.2 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.