NBA games

ATL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
110–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27342524110
CHI2522311694

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keaton Wallace S 38 27 6 6
Daeqwon Plowden 25 19 4 0
Dyson Daniels S 34 18 8 3
Onyeka Okongwu 27 14 13 7
Vit Krejci S 29 11 3 6
Clint Capela S 21 11 10 1
David Roddy S 24 4 6 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 20 3 0 1
Garrison Mathews 22 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 33 16 2 6
Zach LaVine S 36 15 6 7
Nikola Vucevic S 34 14 16 4
Julian Phillips 14 10 4 0
Patrick Williams S 25 10 2 0
Ayo Dosunmu 25 9 3 2
Matas Buzelis 17 8 5 0
Josh Giddey S 30 7 10 3
Jalen Smith 12 5 4 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
David Roddy · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"David Roddy makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Keaton Wallace assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
14%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
10%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
81%
Jumper
11%
Layup
5%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 27.2 5.8 6.0
2 Coby White CHI 22.0 3.7 5.8
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.1 10.5 3.8
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 13.6 3.5 5.9
5 Josh Giddey CHI 13.5 9.6 6.5
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.4 5.0 4.2
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.5 2.7 3.2
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.5 9.2 1.8
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.1 3.9 1.7
10 Garrison Mathews ATL 10.7 3.5 2.0
11 Vit Krejci ATL 10.2 3.3 3.5
12 Patrick Williams CHI 10.0 3.3 2.5
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.2 8.1 1.5
14 Jalen Smith CHI 8.8 5.3 1.3
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.0 4.2 1.6
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.2 1.9 1.4
17 David Roddy ATL 4.4 2.1 0.9
18 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.3 3.0 0.6
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.2 1.0 1.8
20 Julian Phillips CHI 3.7 2.0 0.6
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.7 1.4
22 Jevon Carter CHI 3.6 1.0 0.8
23 Chris Duarte CHI 2.3 1.4 0.6
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.8 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.