NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
97–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS2924291597
TOR25303322110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Payton Pritchard 31 20 2 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 18 8 3
Jayson Tatum S 36 16 10 7
Jrue Holiday S 31 12 6 2
Al Horford 21 10 2 2
Jaylen Brown S 33 10 7 4
Derrick White S 21 6 0 1
Sam Hauser 17 3 6 0
Luke Kornet 10 2 3 1
Jaden Springer 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 36 22 10 8
Scottie Barnes S 36 18 3 9
Jakob Poeltl S 31 16 11 2
Gradey Dick S 25 12 3 4
Davion Mitchell S 26 10 4 5
Jamal Shead 15 8 0 1
Bruce Brown 21 7 7 0
Kelly Olynyk 17 7 3 4
Ochai Agbaji 12 5 4 1
Chris Boucher 17 5 9 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Davion Mitchell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Davion Mitchell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
10 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
54%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.7 9.9 5.7
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 25.7 6.0 6.3
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.9 8.8 5.3
4 RJ Barrett TOR 21.6 6.7 6.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.1 7.0 2.1
6 Derrick White BOS 16.8 3.9 3.8
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.7 9.1 2.7
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.2 3.4 3.9
9 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.4 4.2 4.2
10 Gradey Dick TOR 11.4 3.6 2.0
11 Chris Boucher TOR 10.0 3.6 1.2
12 Al Horford BOS 9.4 5.3 2.0
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 8.9 3.0 1.4
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.4 1.9 4.6
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.9 1.8 3.1
16 Bruce Brown TOR 5.8 2.5 1.2
17 Sam Hauser BOS 5.7 2.0 1.2
18 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 5.9 1.4
19 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.5 2.3 1.8
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 2.7 0.6
21 Jamison Battle TOR 3.6 1.0 0.8
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.6 1.3 0.6
23 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.8 1.0 0.5
24 Jaden Springer BOS 1.8 1.0 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.