NBA games

DEN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN36352027118
DAL2124223299

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DAL
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 45 2 6
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 13 6 2
Nikola Jokic S 29 10 14 10
Peyton Watson 27 9 5 1
Russell Westbrook S 26 9 6 3
DeAndre Jordan 16 8 6 2
Aaron Gordon 18 8 2 0
Christian Braun S 29 6 4 0
Zeke Nnaji 3 4 1 0
Jalen Pickett 4 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Daniel Gafford 19 13 4 1
Naji Marshall S 22 11 2 4
Kyrie Irving S 30 11 4 2
Quentin Grimes 27 10 0 5
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 10 2 1
Maxi Kleber 18 10 1 3
Klay Thompson S 21 8 3 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 20 8 2 2
Jaden Hardy 20 5 2 4
P.J. Washington S 26 5 8 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 2-foot dunk (Naji Marshall assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Klay Thompson DAL
10%
4 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
7 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
9 Christian Braun DEN
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
30%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.6 13.2 10.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.9 4.0 4.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 20.8 4.1 6.0
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.1 5.8 2.2
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.0 7.9 7.7
6 P.J. Washington DAL 15.0 6.3 2.2
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 14.5 3.7 4.9
8 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.4 5.4 3.7
9 Klay Thompson DAL 13.6 3.7 2.8
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.5 5.5 2.8
11 Christian Braun DEN 12.6 4.3 2.0
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.8 8.9 3.1
13 Naji Marshall DAL 10.9 3.6 2.0
14 Peyton Watson DEN 10.5 4.4 1.9
15 Julian Strawther DEN 10.4 2.9 1.4
16 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.4 2.2 1.8
17 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.7 4.9 1.1
18 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.6 3.6 1.8
19 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.7 4.9 0.7
20 Dario Saric DEN 4.0 3.1 1.3
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.4 1.1 1.4
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 2.3 0.8
23 Brandon Williams DAL 2.7 0.8 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 1.9 0.7 0.4
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.8 1.0 0.3
26 Dwight Powell DAL 1.6 2.1 0.6
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.5 0.8 0.3
28 Trey Alexander DEN 1.5 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.