NBA games

SAC @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
115130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC26282833115
MIL47282728130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIL
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 36 28 6 4
De'Aaron Fox S 38 20 11 6
Keon Ellis S 31 18 4 1
Domantas Sabonis S 36 16 10 9
Keegan Murray S 36 11 7 1
Kevin Huerter 18 7 1 1
Trey Lyles 12 5 1 0
Devin Carter 14 3 2 1
Jordan McLaughlin 3 3 1 1
Alex Len 9 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 33 11 13
Damian Lillard S 35 24 5 7
Brook Lopez S 33 21 5 2
AJ Green 30 16 4 1
Ryan Rollins 19 10 3 0
Taurean Prince S 23 9 5 3
Bobby Portis 21 8 9 1
Pat Connaughton 18 5 3 5
Andre Jackson Jr. S 14 2 3 0
MarJon Beauchamp 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
17%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
17%
3 Brook Lopez MIL
12%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
10 Bobby Portis MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
25%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 28.8 13.3 7.3
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 26.7 4.9 6.3
3 Damian Lillard MIL 23.2 4.0 6.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 21.1 3.7 3.9
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.8 12.6 7.9
6 Brook Lopez MIL 13.9 4.7 1.9
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.6 8.4 2.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 10.9 5.7 1.3
9 Trey Lyles SAC 9.8 6.2 1.4
10 Keon Ellis SAC 9.0 3.0 1.7
11 AJ Green MIL 8.4 2.5 1.8
12 Taurean Prince MIL 6.9 2.8 1.9
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.6 2.9 1.7
14 Devin Carter SAC 5.9 4.0 1.6
15 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.1 2.3 1.1
16 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.0 3.2 1.2
17 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.8 2.8 1.1
18 Delon Wright MIL 4.2 2.0 1.6
19 Jae Crowder SAC 3.0 1.9 0.5
20 Doug McDermott SAC 3.0 0.6 0.4
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.9 1.4 0.6
22 Isaac Jones SAC 2.2 1.3 0.3
23 Liam Robbins MIL 2.2 1.3 0.5
24 Stanley Umude MIL 2.2 1.2 0.5
25 Alex Len SAC 1.8 2.1 0.6
26 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.5 0.6 0.6
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.2 1.2 0.3
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.1 0.7 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.