NBA games

NO @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
119113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO29243333119
CHI33262727113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHI
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 37 32 6 4
Zion Williamson S 24 21 7 9
Dejounte Murray S 34 15 7 7
Jose Alvarado 16 12 3 3
Jordan Hawkins 20 9 1 0
CJ McCollum S 29 8 4 5
Brandon Boston 9 7 0 0
Javonte Green 29 7 4 1
Daniel Theis 25 4 7 3
Yves Missi S 17 4 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 38 25 7 5
Nikola Vucevic S 35 22 15 2
Coby White S 34 22 3 4
Jalen Smith 14 13 4 0
Lonzo Ball 25 11 8 6
Patrick Williams S 20 8 1 1
Josh Giddey S 34 7 13 12
Matas Buzelis 12 5 4 0
Dalen Terry 6 0 0 0
Julian Phillips 14 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 1-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
4 Dejounte Murray NO
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
6 Coby White CHI
9%
7 Yves Missi NO
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 CJ McCollum NO
7%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
37%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 26.8 5.7 5.6
2 Trey Murphy III NO 24.3 5.0 4.1
3 CJ McCollum NO 23.3 3.7 4.0
4 Zion Williamson NO 22.7 7.7 5.4
5 Coby White CHI 21.6 3.6 5.5
6 Dejounte Murray NO 20.8 6.4 8.1
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 10.6 3.6
8 Josh Giddey CHI 14.9 10.1 6.4
9 Jose Alvarado NO 12.0 2.2 3.7
10 Patrick Williams CHI 10.1 3.5 2.4
11 Yves Missi NO 9.1 7.6 2.2
12 Jalen Smith CHI 8.6 5.6 1.3
13 Brandon Boston NO 8.0 3.0 1.3
14 Lonzo Ball CHI 7.6 3.1 3.4
15 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.0 2.1 1.2
16 Javonte Green NO 6.1 3.6 1.1
17 Daniel Theis NO 6.0 5.3 1.3
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.3 2.2 1.5
19 Antonio Reeves NO 4.8 1.2 0.8
20 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.7 2.7 0.7
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.9 3.4 1.2
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.9 1.7 1.4
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.8 1.7 0.6
24 Jevon Carter CHI 3.7 1.0 0.8
25 Chris Duarte CHI 2.4 1.3 0.6
26 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.9 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.