NBA games

PHX @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX31253130117
ATL33312533122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home ATL
17% 83%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 38 35 5 5
Kevin Durant S 39 31 8 6
Ryan Dunn S 22 14 1 0
Bradley Beal 28 11 4 3
Grayson Allen 27 9 4 2
Tyus Jones S 26 8 1 6
Oso Ighodaro 19 4 5 1
Mason Plumlee S 25 3 5 4
Royce O'Neale 16 2 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 38 43 3 5
Onyeka Okongwu 28 22 21 1
Garrison Mathews 27 19 3 1
Vit Krejci S 35 15 5 6
Dyson Daniels S 34 9 4 3
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 9 0 3
Clint Capela S 20 3 8 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 17 2 4 0
David Roddy 16 0 6 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Trae Young makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
14%
3 Trae Young ATL
12%
4 Clint Capela ATL
10%
5 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
6 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
20%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 27.1 6.0 5.4
2 Trae Young ATL 25.6 2.5 10.8
3 Devin Booker PHX 25.1 4.2 8.3
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.5 3.9 2.4
5 Bradley Beal PHX 17.0 3.7 3.8
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.7 5.0 4.1
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.4 2.6 2.9
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 4.3 2.8
9 Tyus Jones PHX 10.5 3.0 4.2
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.4 3.7 1.5
11 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 3.4 1.7
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.0 5.0 1.4
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.7 7.4 1.3
14 Clint Capela ATL 8.9 7.6 1.3
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.3 2.9 1.5
16 Vit Krejci ATL 7.6 3.0 3.0
17 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.0 4.1 1.5
18 Monte Morris PHX 5.7 2.0 1.3
19 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 7.2 2.0
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.4 4.0 1.2
21 Josh Okogie PHX 5.0 2.9 0.8
22 David Roddy ATL 3.3 1.1 0.5
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.0 1.7 0.4
24 Damion Lee PHX 2.0 0.9 0.5
25 Dominick Barlow ATL 1.3 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.