NBA games

CLE @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
127–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE37253827127
IND30312828117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home IND
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 31 35 9 3
Darius Garland S 35 24 1 7
Evan Mobley S 33 22 13 1
Jarrett Allen S 32 16 9 2
Max Strus 22 13 4 4
Caris LeVert 27 7 5 7
Georges Niang 17 7 3 0
Sam Merrill 12 3 1 0
Dean Wade S 21 0 3 0
Craig Porter Jr. 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 34 23 7 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 31 19 4 2
Myles Turner S 30 17 5 0
Jarace Walker 18 11 5 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 10 4 9
Obi Toppin 20 10 3 3
T.J. McConnell 21 10 1 8
Thomas Bryant 17 8 5 1
Ben Sheppard S 32 7 3 2
RayJ Dennis 1 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
5 Myles Turner IND
10%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Darius Garland CLE
9%
8 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
40%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
17%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 23.3 3.4 7.4
2 Evan Mobley CLE 21.8 8.7 3.9
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.5 3.7 5.0
4 Pascal Siakam IND 20.7 8.1 3.1
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.2 4.3 8.7
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.8 5.7 2.7
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.7 10.3 2.2
8 Myles Turner IND 15.5 7.7 1.8
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.9 5.0 5.4
10 Caris LeVert CLE 9.6 3.0 2.5
11 Max Strus CLE 8.5 3.5 2.8
12 Dean Wade CLE 8.4 5.5 1.7
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 3.8 1.3
14 Jarace Walker IND 8.3 3.2 1.4
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.1 3.2 1.3
16 T.J. McConnell IND 7.9 2.7 4.0
17 Georges Niang CLE 7.7 2.5 2.1
18 Thomas Bryant IND 7.3 3.8 1.1
19 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 3.1 1.2
20 Isaac Okoro CLE 5.9 2.1 1.6
21 Sam Merrill CLE 5.8 2.0 1.4
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 3.2 0.5
23 Johnny Furphy IND 2.5 1.5 0.6
24 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.3 1.0 0.6
26 James Johnson IND 1.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.