NBA games

MIA @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
98–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA3513203098
LAC28153630109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home LAC
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 32 11 7
Kel'el Ware 33 19 13 0
Terry Rozier S 23 11 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 33 10 2 5
Kevin Love S 15 9 3 0
Haywood Highsmith S 36 9 5 2
Nikola Jovic 28 5 6 3
Duncan Robinson 25 3 2 2
Alec Burks 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 36 29 6 1
James Harden S 37 26 5 11
Ivica Zubac S 32 21 20 1
Derrick Jones Jr. 16 9 0 1
Kawhi Leonard S 21 6 5 1
Kevin Porter Jr. 16 6 0 4
Mo Bamba 8 5 7 0
Amir Coffey 25 5 0 0
Kris Dunn S 26 2 0 8
Nicolas Batum 24 0 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 14-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Norman Powell LAC
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 James Harden LAC
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
10 Kevin Love MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
35%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.1 4.9 5.5
2 James Harden LAC 22.7 4.5 8.8
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.3 4.3 2.6
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.0 9.6 4.2
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 15.8 5.2 4.4
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.6 12.8 2.7
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.4 2.7
8 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.0 4.3 3.9
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.5 5.0 3.8
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.7 2.7 1.0
11 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.5 2.5 3.2
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.4 4.2 1.9
13 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.2 3.5 3.8
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.6 3.2 1.1
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.1 4.3 1.0
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.9 2.9 2.6
17 Alec Burks MIA 6.7 2.4 1.2
18 Bones Hyland LAC 6.5 1.4 1.6
19 Terance Mann LAC 6.1 1.5 1.3
20 Josh Christopher MIA 4.6 1.6 1.9
21 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.6 2.3 0.6
22 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.5 1.4 2.5
23 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.5 2.5 1.3
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.2 2.3 0.9
25 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.0 1.7 1.0
26 Mo Bamba LAC 3.0 3.4 0.5
27 Kai Jones LAC 1.8 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.