NBA games

SA @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
126–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA28253637126
LAL26362713102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home LAL
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 23 8 5
Devin Vassell S 34 23 6 4
Stephon Castle S 36 23 4 1
Harrison Barnes S 32 17 4 3
Chris Paul S 29 13 2 10
Keldon Johnson 21 10 2 3
Charles Bassey 12 4 9 1
Tre Jones 17 4 2 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 2 4 1 0
Malaki Branham 2 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 30 13 2
LeBron James S 32 18 5 8
Austin Reaves S 33 12 5 8
Max Christie S 31 10 1 1
Rui Hachimura S 30 9 3 1
Gabe Vincent 17 7 2 1
Dalton Knecht 14 5 3 1
Dorian Finney-Smith 20 4 3 0
Jaxson Hayes 13 4 1 1
Cam Reddish 15 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Davis · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Anthony Davis makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
3 Devin Vassell SA
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
6 Stephon Castle SA
9%
7 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Max Christie LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
26%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.2 11.4 4.1
2 LeBron James LAL 26.0 6.7 8.0
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.6 13.1 4.1
4 Austin Reaves LAL 21.2 5.4 7.4
5 Devin Vassell SA 14.0 5.3 3.3
6 Max Christie LAL 11.8 3.1 1.6
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.7 4.2 1.3
8 Keldon Johnson SA 11.1 4.7 1.2
9 Harrison Barnes SA 10.9 2.7 1.1
10 Chris Paul SA 9.6 4.2 6.7
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 8.4 3.6 1.1
12 Stephon Castle SA 8.1 2.1 2.9
13 Julian Champagnie SA 8.0 2.9 1.0
14 Shake Milton LAL 7.0 2.3 1.7
15 Quincy Olivari LAL 6.8 2.4 1.1
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.5 1.8 0.8
17 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.6 1.8 1.3
18 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.5 4.2 0.5
19 Tre Jones SA 4.0 1.9 3.8
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.6 2.2 0.4
21 Charles Bassey SA 3.5 3.6 0.3
22 Cam Reddish LAL 3.3 1.8 0.6
23 Blake Wesley SA 3.0 0.9 1.6
24 Zach Collins SA 2.6 2.0 0.7
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.6 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.