NBA games

MEM @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
118–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30303226118
HOU23343033120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home HOU
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja Morant S 37 29 3 4
Desmond Bane S 34 25 3 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 17 2 3
Jaylen Wells S 30 14 0 0
Jake LaRavia 21 12 7 0
Brandon Clarke 24 6 4 0
Santi Aldama 18 5 2 3
Luke Kennard 10 4 1 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 11 4 2 1
Zach Edey S 24 2 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 40 42 3 4
Amen Thompson S 41 19 13 4
Alperen Sengun S 32 17 8 5
Cam Whitmore 21 16 1 1
Fred VanVleet S 36 9 2 9
Dillon Brooks S 39 9 5 2
Aaron Holiday 9 6 1 0
Steven Adams 13 2 7 1
Jae'Sean Tate 8 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ja Morant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Ja Morant makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
10%
5 Ja Morant MEM
9%
6 Zach Edey MEM
8%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
8 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
38%
Jumper
31%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 26.3 8.0 4.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.6 10.8 5.5
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.5 5.6 6.4
4 Jalen Green HOU 22.9 4.4 2.8
5 Ja Morant MEM 22.7 4.8 6.5
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.2 4.2 6.1
7 Amen Thompson HOU 16.2 9.3 3.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.9 4.3 2.1
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.0 5.4 1.7
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.3 3.8 1.2
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.1 3.7 1.8
12 Luke Kennard MEM 10.4 3.4 3.6
13 Santi Aldama MEM 10.1 5.5 1.7
14 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 10.0 3.2 3.6
15 Zach Edey MEM 9.7 7.9 1.3
16 Tari Eason HOU 9.5 6.0 1.3
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 7.4 3.3 2.7
18 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.9 5.2 0.9
19 Jay Huff MEM 6.2 2.1 0.8
20 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.7 2.1 0.9
21 John Konchar MEM 3.9 4.8 1.2
22 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.5 1.0 0.9
23 Jeff Green HOU 3.4 1.2 0.5
24 Steven Adams HOU 2.9 5.5 0.8
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.6 0.8 0.5
26 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.6 1.3 0.6
27 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.1 0.6 0.7
28 Jock Landale HOU 1.9 1.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.