NBA games

GS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
101–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26242823101
TOR28242329104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home TOR
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 26 7 7
Andrew Wiggins S 35 20 3 1
Kyle Anderson 18 13 2 2
Dennis Schroder S 24 12 3 4
Kevon Looney 18 10 9 1
Buddy Hield S 33 8 2 3
Lindy Waters III 22 8 9 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 30 3 6 3
Moses Moody 14 1 2 0
Gui Santos 12 0 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 40 23 8 6
Chris Boucher 22 18 7 2
RJ Barrett S 26 15 4 5
Jakob Poeltl S 35 13 13 2
Ochai Agbaji 25 12 3 0
Gradey Dick S 23 12 3 1
Jamal Shead 18 9 1 2
Kelly Olynyk 11 2 2 2
Bruce Brown 14 0 3 2
Davion Mitchell S 27 0 0 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 3-foot layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
2 Stephen Curry GS
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Dennis Schroder GS
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Buddy Hield GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.0 5.2 5.7
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.9 8.4 5.7
3 RJ Barrett TOR 23.3 7.1 6.2
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 14.4 5.2 2.5
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.5 8.3 2.8
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 13.2 9.2 2.7
7 Gradey Dick TOR 12.5 3.5 2.6
8 Dennis Schroder GS 12.2 2.9 5.4
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.6 2.9 1.3
10 Draymond Green GS 9.5 6.1 5.6
11 Chris Boucher TOR 9.2 3.1 1.1
12 Buddy Hield GS 8.9 3.3 2.1
13 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 7.7 1.9 1.4
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.7 1.9 5.0
15 Moses Moody GS 7.3 1.7 1.1
16 Bruce Brown TOR 6.6 2.6 1.2
17 Lindy Waters III GS 6.4 2.9 1.1
18 Kyle Anderson GS 6.0 3.6 2.1
19 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.9 2.3 1.8
20 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.5 1.8 3.0
21 Kevon Looney GS 4.7 4.3 1.6
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.9 1.0 0.8
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.7 3.2 1.0
24 Gui Santos GS 3.7 1.9 1.0
25 Pat Spencer GS 3.5 1.9 1.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.