NBA games

DET @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
124–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET37223629124
NY26372729119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NY
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 32 36 2 4
Malik Beasley 18 22 2 1
Tobias Harris S 36 11 8 3
Ausar Thompson S 26 11 7 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 35 10 3 3
Jalen Duren S 20 10 8 3
Isaiah Stewart 28 7 4 0
Marcus Sasser 16 7 0 4
Ronald Holland II 15 6 2 1
Simone Fontecchio 15 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 31 4 11
Mikal Bridges S 37 27 2 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 43 26 12 3
Josh Hart S 38 12 14 5
OG Anunoby S 39 10 3 1
Cameron Payne 14 10 1 2
Miles McBride 17 3 1 2
Precious Achiuwa 10 0 4 1
Landry Shamet 4 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
3 Josh Hart NY
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
10 Tobias Harris DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
10%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 28.1 3.7 7.4
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.6 5.7 8.7
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.7 12.2 3.6
4 Josh Hart NY 17.2 11.0 5.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 16.8 3.5 2.9
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.5 3.3 2.0
7 OG Anunoby NY 14.1 4.1 1.7
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.3 5.3 2.7
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.4 2.3 1.7
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.9 9.9 2.1
11 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.9 2.9 1.3
12 Miles McBride NY 7.8 2.7 3.0
13 Ausar Thompson DET 7.1 4.6 1.6
14 Ronald Holland II DET 6.4 2.4 1.2
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.7 3.7 0.8
16 Cameron Payne NY 5.6 1.4 1.8
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.5 4.8 1.5
18 Marcus Sasser DET 5.1 1.5 2.1
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.1 1.4 0.8
20 Paul Reed DET 3.8 2.3 1.1
21 Matt Ryan NY 3.1 1.2 0.6
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.1 2.4 0.7
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.7 1.7 0.9
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.4 1.0 0.8
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.2 1.3 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.