MIN @ WSH
NBA
Capital One Arena
·Final
120–106
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 26 | 31 | 38 | 120 |
| WSH | 20 | 27 | 32 | 27 | 106 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN
away
home
WSH
90%
10%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards S | 36 | 41 | 6 | 7 |
| Julius Randle S | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 |
| Donte DiVincenzo S | 29 | 13 | 3 | 0 |
| Naz Reid | 24 | 12 | 5 | 1 |
| Rudy Gobert S | 33 | 11 | 11 | 2 |
| Jaden McDaniels S | 30 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Conley | 20 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 23 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Josh Minott | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luka Garza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Alex Sarr ·
3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Alexandre Sarr makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Jordan Poole
WSH
14%
2
Julius Randle
MIN
12%
3
Rudy Gobert
MIN
11%
4
Anthony Edwards
MIN
10%
5
Bilal Coulibaly
WSH
10%
6
Kyle Kuzma
WSH
9%
7
Alex Sarr
WSH
9%
8
Bub Carrington
WSH
9%
9
Jaden McDaniels
MIN
9%
10
Donte DiVincenzo
MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Edwards | MIN | 26.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| 2 | Jordan Poole | WSH | 22.8 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| 3 | Julius Randle | MIN | 21.1 | 7.3 | 6.0 |
| 4 | Donte DiVincenzo | MIN | 16.9 | 4.7 | 4.5 |
| 5 | Naz Reid | MIN | 15.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 |
| 6 | Alex Sarr | WSH | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 |
| 7 | Bilal Coulibaly | WSH | 12.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| 8 | Jonas Valanciunas | WSH | 12.4 | 8.5 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Kyle Kuzma | WSH | 12.2 | 4.7 | 2.5 |
| 10 | Corey Kispert | WSH | 11.9 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| 11 | Jaden McDaniels | MIN | 11.1 | 5.9 | 1.6 |
| 12 | Rudy Gobert | MIN | 10.6 | 10.5 | 1.5 |
| 13 | Bub Carrington | WSH | 10.3 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| 14 | Justin Champagnie | WSH | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 |
| 15 | Jared Butler | WSH | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| 16 | Mike Conley | MIN | 8.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 |
| 17 | Nickeil Alexander-Walker | MIN | 7.6 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| 18 | Kyshawn George | WSH | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 19 | Josh Minott | MIN | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Tristen Newton | MIN | 4.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| 21 | Jaylen Clark | MIN | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 22 | Leonard Miller | MIN | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.5 |
| 23 | Johnny Davis | WSH | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 24 | Luka Garza | MIN | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 25 | Richaun Holmes | WSH | 3.4 | 3.1 | 0.5 |
| 26 | Joe Ingles | MIN | 3.2 | 1.5 | 1.9 |
| 27 | Patrick Baldwin Jr. | WSH | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 28 | Anthony Gill | WSH | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.