NBA games

MIN @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
120106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN25263138120
WSH20273227106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home WSH
90% 10%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 41 6 7
Julius Randle S 33 20 10 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 29 13 3 0
Naz Reid 24 12 5 1
Rudy Gobert S 33 11 11 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 8 8 0
Mike Conley 20 7 5 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 23 6 3 3
Josh Minott 7 2 0 0
Luka Garza 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 35 22 5 5
Jordan Poole S 33 20 7 4
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 15 1 3
Alex Sarr S 28 13 3 5
Kyshawn George 18 10 1 3
Jonas Valanciunas 19 8 8 4
Bub Carrington S 34 8 5 2
Jared Butler 7 7 0 0
Corey Kispert 18 2 2 1
Anthony Gill 1 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Sarr · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Alexandre Sarr makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
14%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
7 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
8 Bub Carrington WSH
9%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
30%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 6.0 5.6
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.8 4.3 5.4
3 Julius Randle MIN 21.1 7.3 6.0
4 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 16.9 4.7 4.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 15.2 5.7 2.3
6 Alex Sarr WSH 13.0 6.7 2.5
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.6 5.2 3.7
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.4 8.5 2.2
9 Kyle Kuzma WSH 12.2 4.7 2.5
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.9 2.7 2.1
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.1 5.9 1.6
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.6 10.5 1.5
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.3 3.6 4.4
14 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.1 4.7 1.4
15 Jared Butler WSH 8.7 2.5 2.6
16 Mike Conley MIN 8.3 2.5 3.3
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.6 3.1 2.6
18 Kyshawn George WSH 7.3 3.7 1.6
19 Josh Minott MIN 4.2 2.1 0.9
20 Tristen Newton MIN 4.2 1.4 1.9
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.9 1.7 0.6
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.6 2.9 0.5
23 Johnny Davis WSH 3.5 1.6 0.7
24 Luka Garza MIN 3.4 1.1 0.4
25 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.4 3.1 0.5
26 Joe Ingles MIN 3.2 1.5 1.9
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.1 1.3 0.6
28 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.