NBA games

CHA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA34283615113
PHX28343127120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home PHX
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 40 25 6 11
Mark Williams S 29 24 16 4
Miles Bridges S 32 21 5 5
Brandon Miller S 33 19 4 6
Nick Smith Jr. 18 8 3 0
Cody Martin 25 5 3 1
Vasilije Micic 8 5 1 1
Nick Richards 18 4 5 2
Josh Green S 30 2 7 0
Tidjane Salaun 6 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 30 5 8
Kevin Durant S 40 27 8 5
Bradley Beal 35 15 3 6
Grayson Allen 13 13 1 0
Ryan Dunn S 27 11 6 2
Oso Ighodaro 30 10 6 2
Royce O'Neale 22 9 4 1
Tyus Jones S 18 3 1 5
Mason Plumlee S 15 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 2-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
14%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
3 Brandon Miller CHA
13%
4 Mark Williams CHA
12%
5 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
6 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
7 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
9 Seth Curry CHA
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
48%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 27.7 6.2 8.7
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.0 6.2 4.9
3 Devin Booker PHX 24.8 4.1 7.7
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.8 8.9 4.4
5 Brandon Miller CHA 21.2 4.6 3.9
6 Bradley Beal PHX 18.4 3.3 3.6
7 Mark Williams CHA 12.9 9.0 2.0
8 Tyus Jones PHX 10.9 2.8 3.7
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.3 3.5 1.9
10 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.7 5.2 1.3
11 Royce O'Neale PHX 9.5 3.7 2.4
12 Cody Martin CHA 8.8 4.3 2.0
13 Josh Green CHA 7.0 3.0 1.2
14 Nick Richards CHA 6.4 5.4 0.9
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.2 1.6 3.1
16 Monte Morris PHX 6.1 2.1 1.3
17 Josh Okogie PHX 5.6 2.8 0.8
18 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.4 6.7 2.0
19 Seth Curry CHA 5.2 1.4 0.7
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 4.9 3.7 1.2
21 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.6 1.6 1.0
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.4 3.3 0.9
23 KJ Simpson CHA 3.9 1.5 1.4
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.2 1.6 0.4
25 Moussa Diabate CHA 2.8 2.8 0.3
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.1 0.7 0.4
27 Taj Gibson CHA 1.8 1.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.