NBA games

OKC @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
136–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC37303732136
WSH2518262695

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home WSH
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 27 7 4
Aaron Wiggins 30 23 9 4
Jalen Williams S 21 17 6 2
Cason Wallace S 30 14 2 5
Luguentz Dort S 24 11 2 1
Kenrich Williams 22 10 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 22 10 12 2
Jaylin Williams 24 9 9 4
Isaiah Joe 20 7 2 2
Branden Carlson 8 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Corey Kispert 24 17 0 0
Jordan Poole S 23 13 3 4
Jonas Valanciunas 18 11 8 0
Alex Sarr S 25 10 6 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 10 5 1
Kyshawn George 20 8 2 2
Jared Butler 8 6 4 2
Kyle Kuzma S 30 6 2 3
Bub Carrington S 34 5 7 7
Anthony Gill 5 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
21%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH
8%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
90%
Jumper
4%
Layup
3%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 5.4 6.6
2 Jordan Poole WSH 22.8 4.2 4.8
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.2 5.7 6.4
4 Alex Sarr WSH 14.0 7.5 2.9
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.5 11.8 4.9
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.4 5.2 4.3
7 Kyle Kuzma WSH 12.5 4.9 2.4
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.3 9.3 2.4
9 Corey Kispert WSH 11.6 2.9 2.2
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.9 3.3 1.6
11 Bub Carrington WSH 10.4 3.4 4.1
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.0 3.8 1.6
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.6 5.7 1.3
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.8 3.0 2.8
15 Jared Butler WSH 8.8 2.3 2.6
16 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.6 2.8 1.5
17 Kyshawn George WSH 8.1 3.9 1.6
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 6.4 3.3 1.1
19 Alex Caruso OKC 5.9 2.4 2.0
20 Jaylin Williams OKC 5.0 3.7 1.8
21 Alex Ducas OKC 4.2 1.7 0.8
22 Johnny Davis WSH 3.6 2.0 0.7
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.4 3.3 0.4
24 Branden Carlson OKC 2.9 1.7 0.7
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.8 1.4 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.7 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.