NBA games

PHI @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
99–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI2127292299
ORL24252431104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 29 4 5
Paul George S 37 25 10 6
Eric Gordon S 28 14 4 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 12 4 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 39 8 3 2
Justin Edwards 24 7 2 1
Reggie Jackson 11 4 0 1
Adem Bona 15 0 0 0
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 5 0 1 0
Ricky Council IV 6 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony S 38 27 3 4
Jonathan Isaac 27 20 11 1
Paolo Banchero S 27 20 8 6
Anthony Black 37 17 6 6
Caleb Houstan S 26 5 1 0
Goga Bitadze S 12 4 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 25 4 4 1
Trevelin Queen 31 4 5 3
Cory Joseph 16 3 1 1
Tristan da Silva S 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Paul George makes 19-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
2 Paul George PHI
11%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
4 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
10%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
9%
8 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
10 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
42%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 27.9 8.4 3.8
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.5 3.7 7.1
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.0 7.5 5.3
4 Paul George PHI 19.3 5.8 3.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 6.1 2.1
6 Tristan da Silva ORL 12.9 5.8 2.5
7 Cole Anthony ORL 12.2 3.9 3.6
8 Goga Bitadze ORL 11.5 9.2 3.6
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 11.3 2.6 2.6
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 11.2 5.5 1.5
11 Anthony Black ORL 10.7 2.7 2.7
12 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.0 5.8 1.9
13 Caleb Martin PHI 9.9 4.3 1.8
14 Trevelin Queen ORL 6.4 2.2 1.9
15 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.2 2.4 0.7
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.1 5.0 1.1
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.0 1.8 1.2
18 Eric Gordon PHI 5.5 1.4 1.0
19 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.9 0.9
20 Cory Joseph ORL 3.8 1.3 1.2
21 Adem Bona PHI 3.4 3.1 0.6
22 Justin Edwards PHI 3.3 1.7 0.6
23 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.1 1.5 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.