NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
108–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND21193731108
CLE1934182293

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 28 19 2 4
Pascal Siakam S 31 18 9 2
Myles Turner S 29 15 10 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 33 12 3 3
Obi Toppin 18 12 2 1
Thomas Bryant 19 11 3 1
Jarace Walker 22 8 12 2
T.J. McConnell 17 6 4 8
Ben Sheppard 22 5 2 3
Tyrese Haliburton S 19 2 1 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 29 20 1 7
Donovan Mitchell S 31 19 3 1
Evan Mobley S 31 16 12 1
Jarrett Allen S 25 11 9 3
Georges Niang 20 7 0 0
Tristan Thompson 3 4 0 0
Dean Wade S 21 3 9 1
Isaac Okoro 18 3 0 2
Max Strus 23 3 4 1
Sam Merrill 12 3 2 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
4 Myles Turner IND
9%
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
6 Evan Mobley CLE
8%
7 Darius Garland CLE
8%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
9 Caris LeVert CLE
7%
10 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
42%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
15%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Darius Garland CLE 23.3 3.5 7.6
2 Evan Mobley CLE 22.1 8.4 4.3
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 22.0 4.3 9.2
4 Donovan Mitchell CLE 21.1 3.7 5.5
5 Pascal Siakam IND 20.4 7.7 3.0
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 16.7 5.9 2.6
7 Myles Turner IND 15.6 7.3 1.7
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.6 10.3 2.2
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 13.0 4.9 5.2
10 Caris LeVert CLE 10.3 2.9 2.7
11 T.J. McConnell IND 8.6 2.6 3.9
12 Dean Wade CLE 8.4 5.4 1.7
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.3 4.2 1.1
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.0 3.2 1.2
15 Jarace Walker IND 7.8 2.5 1.2
16 Max Strus CLE 7.6 3.3 2.8
17 Georges Niang CLE 7.3 2.6 2.2
18 Isaac Okoro CLE 6.5 2.6 1.7
19 Sam Merrill CLE 6.4 1.9 1.4
20 Thomas Bryant IND 6.3 3.7 1.0
21 Ben Sheppard IND 5.8 3.3 1.0
22 Johnny Furphy IND 2.6 1.5 0.6
23 James Johnson IND 2.5 1.6 0.5
24 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.0 2.7 0.3
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 1.7 1.1 0.4
26 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 1.6 1.0 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.