NBA games

SAC @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
124–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC32293627124
CHI30333224119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home CHI
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 26 9 3
Domantas Sabonis S 38 22 15 8
DeMar DeRozan S 37 21 0 3
Malik Monk S 37 18 8 9
Keegan Murray S 36 14 5 2
Keon Ellis 20 8 2 0
Kevin Huerter 10 7 3 4
Trey Lyles 18 6 8 2
Devin Carter 11 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 38 36 10 4
Nikola Vucevic S 33 18 7 3
Lonzo Ball S 26 15 1 3
Josh Giddey S 37 12 11 7
Talen Horton-Tucker 17 10 2 0
Jalen Smith 15 9 5 1
Patrick Williams S 34 8 5 5
Matas Buzelis 13 5 2 0
Julian Phillips 13 4 1 0
Dalen Terry 15 2 1 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes 16-foot jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Malik Monk SAC
13%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
10 Keon Ellis SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
30%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
32%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.6 4.8 6.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 26.5 5.0 5.6
3 Malik Monk SAC 21.2 4.2 6.5
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.8 4.2 4.1
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.0 10.6 3.6
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.2 15.0 8.1
7 Josh Giddey CHI 14.0 8.9 6.3
8 Keegan Murray SAC 11.9 6.3 1.4
9 Patrick Williams CHI 10.5 3.3 2.3
10 Trey Lyles SAC 10.0 5.9 1.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.5 3.2 1.8
12 Jalen Smith CHI 8.1 5.5 1.2
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.3 3.0 1.6
14 Lonzo Ball CHI 7.2 3.3 3.7
15 Devin Carter SAC 7.0 4.6 1.8
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.4 2.3 1.5
17 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.4 1.0
18 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.2 2.7 0.6
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 1.7 1.4
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.0 1.7 0.7
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 0.7 0.5
22 Jae Crowder SAC 3.5 1.9 0.6
23 Chris Duarte CHI 3.1 1.7 0.7
24 Isaac Jones SAC 2.8 1.4 0.3
25 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.2 0.7
26 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.0 0.7 0.7
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.7 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.