NBA games

DEN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
112–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN17412133112
DAL32292812101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home DAL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 34 21 10 7
Nikola Jokic S 39 19 18 9
Jamal Murray S 32 17 2 2
Aaron Gordon 18 13 6 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 13 4 1
Peyton Watson 33 10 6 1
Christian Braun S 24 8 4 0
DeAndre Jordan 9 6 5 0
Julian Strawther 26 5 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 35 25 6 2
Naji Marshall S 31 16 6 2
Spencer Dinwiddie S 39 16 4 10
Dereck Lively II S 27 14 6 8
P.J. Washington S 37 8 5 2
Daniel Gafford 15 8 3 0
Maxi Kleber 20 6 3 0
Jaden Hardy 16 5 0 3
Quentin Grimes 19 3 4 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dereck Lively II · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Dereck Lively II makes 5-foot two point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Russell Westbrook DEN
11%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
9%
7 Christian Braun DEN
8%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
9 Naji Marshall DAL
7%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
32%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 11.8 10.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 20.2 4.3 6.3
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.9 5.8 2.2
4 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.1 7.3 6.9
5 P.J. Washington DAL 15.5 6.5 2.1
6 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.7 5.3 3.8
7 Klay Thompson DAL 13.3 3.3 2.8
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.0 3.4 4.1
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.3 4.3 2.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 12.2 4.2 2.1
11 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.3 9.0 2.5
12 Julian Strawther DEN 10.1 3.1 1.3
13 Naji Marshall DAL 10.0 3.1 2.0
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.0 2.1 1.6
15 Peyton Watson DEN 9.8 4.2 1.8
16 Daniel Gafford DAL 9.2 5.3 1.2
17 Maxi Kleber DAL 6.3 3.4 1.9
18 Dario Saric DEN 4.5 3.3 1.5
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.3 1.6 1.7
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.3 4.5 0.7
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 2.3 0.9
22 Brandon Williams DAL 2.9 1.0 0.6
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.6 1.5 0.5
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 0.9 0.4
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.9 0.9 0.4
26 Trey Alexander DEN 1.9 0.8 0.5
27 Dwight Powell DAL 1.9 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.