NBA games

MIL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33292717106
NY36393332140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home NY
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 31 24 13 2
Damian Lillard S 37 22 3 5
Khris Middleton 25 16 0 5
Andre Jackson Jr. S 11 9 3 0
Bobby Portis 19 8 4 0
Pat Connaughton 16 8 5 2
AJ Green 25 6 2 1
MarJon Beauchamp 11 5 2 0
Brook Lopez S 23 5 1 3
Taurean Prince S 23 3 2 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 29 44 5 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 36 30 18 4
Cameron Payne 14 18 2 2
OG Anunoby S 31 11 1 2
Josh Hart S 35 11 11 4
Matt Ryan 3 8 1 0
Mikal Bridges S 37 6 2 6
Miles McBride 20 6 0 2
Precious Achiuwa 15 4 3 1
Jacob Toppin 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Andre Jackson Jr. makes two point shot (Taurean Prince assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
19%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
3 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
4 Josh Hart NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
8 Damian Lillard MIL
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
24%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.0 13.0 6.3
2 Jalen Brunson NY 26.4 3.6 7.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.2 12.6 3.7
4 Damian Lillard MIL 23.6 4.0 6.7
5 Mikal Bridges NY 19.3 3.4 3.1
6 Bobby Portis MIL 17.0 8.8 3.4
7 Josh Hart NY 17.0 11.9 6.0
8 Khris Middleton MIL 15.7 4.8 4.7
9 Brook Lopez MIL 14.9 4.7 1.8
10 OG Anunoby NY 13.7 4.4 1.6
11 AJ Green MIL 8.3 2.5 2.0
12 Miles McBride NY 7.6 2.9 3.0
13 Taurean Prince MIL 7.3 2.9 1.8
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.0 4.4 0.9
15 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 3.2 1.5
16 Cameron Payne NY 4.8 1.5 1.8
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.2 2.4 1.0
18 Landry Shamet NY 4.2 1.5 0.8
19 Delon Wright MIL 3.4 1.7 1.3
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.3 2.2 0.7
21 Matt Ryan NY 2.6 1.2 0.5
22 Jacob Toppin NY 2.4 1.4 0.6
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.4 1.0 0.6
24 Liam Robbins MIL 2.3 1.5 0.6
25 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.1 1.0 0.5
26 Stanley Umude MIL 2.0 1.0 0.5
27 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 2.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.