NBA games

MIA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
119–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA29372825119
POR2325351598

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home POR
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 32 32 5 5
Nikola Jovic 32 21 8 5
Haywood Highsmith S 37 14 3 4
Bam Adebayo S 30 13 11 6
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 26 11 5 2
Terry Rozier S 29 11 2 4
Duncan Robinson 16 8 2 1
Kel'el Ware 16 7 4 0
Pelle Larsson 10 2 2 0
Keshad Johnson 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 33 28 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 37 22 3 5
Deni Avdija S 37 15 12 5
Kris Murray 15 10 3 2
Donovan Clingan S 27 8 10 1
Toumani Camara S 39 6 10 2
Scoot Henderson 21 3 3 3
Jabari Walker 2 3 0 0
Duop Reath 16 3 3 1
Dalano Banton 6 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaime Jaquez Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Tyler Herro MIA
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Deni Avdija POR
9%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
8%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
8 Toumani Camara POR
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
41%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.6 5.5 5.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.6 3.5 6.2
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.9 4.6 3.4
4 Deni Avdija POR 19.8 7.3 4.3
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.1 9.3 4.1
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA 16.4 5.5 4.3
7 Terry Rozier MIA 13.7 4.7 2.5
8 Deandre Ayton POR 13.5 10.7 2.0
9 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.4 4.0 3.8
10 Scoot Henderson POR 13.3 3.6 5.4
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.6 4.8 3.5
12 Toumani Camara POR 11.7 6.0 1.9
13 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.3 2.7 3.3
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.7 4.1 1.6
15 Kel'el Ware MIA 8.2 4.2 1.0
16 Dalano Banton POR 6.9 2.1 2.6
17 Alec Burks MIA 6.8 2.5 1.0
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.3 4.4 1.0
19 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.8 1.5
20 Kris Murray POR 4.4 2.3 1.3
21 Josh Christopher MIA 3.9 1.2 1.7
22 Kevin Love MIA 3.5 2.4 0.9
23 Jabari Walker POR 3.5 2.7 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.4 0.5
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 1.9 0.5
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.8 1.3 0.8
27 Justin Minaya POR 2.5 1.2 0.6
28 Rayan Rupert POR 2.1 1.1 0.8
29 Bryce McGowens POR 1.2 0.6 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.