NBA games

MEM @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
127–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM35293528127
MIN33323822125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home MIN
66% 34%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 33 8 1
Desmond Bane S 32 21 5 5
Jaylen Wells S 31 13 2 2
Ja Morant S 30 12 5 4
Luke Kennard 22 11 5 5
Santi Aldama 16 11 1 1
Brandon Clarke 19 10 4 1
Zach Edey S 20 8 9 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 16 5 3 4
Jake LaRavia 13 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donte DiVincenzo S 36 27 10 7
Jaden McDaniels S 30 21 6 1
Naz Reid 30 19 6 3
Julius Randle S 33 18 8 8
Anthony Edwards S 39 15 5 6
Rudy Gobert S 29 12 4 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 26 8 2 6
Mike Conley 15 3 0 2
Josh Minott 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes dunk (Donte DiVincenzo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
8 Zach Edey MEM
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 John Konchar MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
50%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 6.0 5.3
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 24.9 8.3 4.0
3 Ja Morant MEM 23.6 4.7 6.5
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.4 5.6 6.4
5 Julius Randle MIN 21.3 7.6 6.0
6 Naz Reid MIN 16.1 5.2 2.2
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.5 4.0 4.0
8 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 12.6 3.6 4.0
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.3 3.8 1.8
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.8 6.3 1.8
11 Luke Kennard MEM 10.7 3.2 3.2
12 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.5 9.9 1.4
13 Zach Edey MEM 9.8 7.8 1.3
14 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.7 5.4 1.5
15 Mike Conley MIN 9.0 2.5 3.6
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.8 3.7 3.1
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.6 3.0 2.3
18 Jay Huff MEM 7.5 2.3 0.9
19 Brandon Clarke MEM 6.3 5.4 0.9
20 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.7 2.0 0.8
21 Leonard Miller MIN 4.3 3.2 0.7
22 John Konchar MEM 4.2 5.1 1.3
23 Luka Garza MIN 4.0 1.4 0.7
24 Josh Minott MIN 3.8 1.9 0.9
25 Joe Ingles MIN 3.1 1.5 2.0
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 2.3 0.8 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.