NBA games

TOR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
114–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR32342721114
DET32333424123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home DET
6% 94%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Immanuel Quickley S 32 25 2 2
Scottie Barnes S 38 16 12 3
Bruce Brown 20 14 5 3
Chris Boucher 20 14 3 1
Gradey Dick S 30 13 3 2
Jamal Shead 17 10 0 5
RJ Barrett S 33 10 6 3
Jakob Poeltl S 34 8 12 3
Kelly Olynyk 14 4 2 5
Ja'Kobe Walter 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 32 27 3 1
Cade Cunningham S 37 22 10 17
Malik Beasley 27 18 3 2
Tobias Harris S 35 17 7 3
Jalen Duren S 28 10 9 2
Simone Fontecchio 15 9 3 0
Isaiah Stewart 20 6 3 5
Ausar Thompson S 20 6 4 3
Marcus Sasser 11 5 0 1
Ronald Holland II 15 3 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tim Hardaway Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Jalen Duren DET
9%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
9%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
10 Tobias Harris DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
42%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 27.9 5.3 9.6
2 RJ Barrett TOR 23.7 6.5 6.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.8 7.8 5.5
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.4 2.8 6.4
5 Malik Beasley DET 16.2 3.3 2.2
6 Tobias Harris DET 13.6 5.1 2.9
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 10.6 2.5
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 7.8 2.7
9 Gradey Dick TOR 12.7 3.8 2.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.2 2.3 1.8
11 Ochai Agbaji TOR 9.6 3.1 1.5
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.3 5.4 1.8
13 Chris Boucher TOR 8.8 3.6 0.9
14 Simone Fontecchio DET 8.3 3.0 1.6
15 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 8.0 1.9 1.4
16 Jamal Shead TOR 7.4 1.9 4.7
17 Ronald Holland II DET 7.1 2.5 1.4
18 Isaiah Stewart DET 6.3 5.5 1.5
19 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.0 2.0 3.0
20 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.9 3.0 1.7
21 Marcus Sasser DET 5.8 1.7 2.4
22 Bruce Brown TOR 5.5 2.0 0.8
23 Paul Reed DET 5.2 3.0 1.5
24 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.0 2.3 1.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.