NBA games

UTAH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
106–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH27272527106
PHX31342227114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home PHX
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 31 24 4 2
Collin Sexton S 29 20 4 4
Walker Kessler S 31 16 13 0
Cody Williams 22 13 2 2
Svi Mykhailiuk 19 13 4 7
Isaiah Collier S 27 5 3 8
Micah Potter S 19 5 1 0
Kyle Filipowski 22 4 2 1
Drew Eubanks 17 4 11 1
Patty Mills 14 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 36 34 5 4
Kevin Durant S 36 25 5 7
Grayson Allen 30 14 4 4
Bradley Beal 31 12 2 3
Ryan Dunn S 24 10 5 2
Oso Ighodaro 23 9 2 0
Mason Plumlee S 23 6 10 0
Monte Morris 4 2 0 0
Josh Okogie 7 2 2 0
Tyus Jones S 26 0 3 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mason Plumlee · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Mason Plumlee makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Collin Sexton UTAH
20%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
14%
3 Devin Booker PHX
13%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
6 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
7 Mason Plumlee PHX
8%
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Bradley Beal PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.1 6.1 5.2
2 Devin Booker PHX 24.3 3.9 8.7
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.3 3.7 6.1
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 20.6 5.8 1.9
5 Bradley Beal PHX 19.7 3.9 4.1
6 Tyus Jones PHX 12.5 2.9 4.2
7 Walker Kessler UTAH 10.7 11.5 1.9
8 Grayson Allen PHX 10.6 3.4 2.0
9 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.4 4.7 1.4
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.6 7.4 2.8
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 7.4 1.9 1.5
12 Isaiah Collier UTAH 6.8 3.7 5.0
13 Monte Morris PHX 6.4 2.2 1.7
14 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.9 7.1 2.4
15 Drew Eubanks UTAH 5.8 4.2 1.2
16 Josh Okogie PHX 5.8 2.8 0.9
17 Patty Mills UTAH 5.4 1.6 1.5
18 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 5.3 5.0 1.5
19 Cody Williams UTAH 4.9 2.5 1.1
20 Micah Potter UTAH 4.4 3.2 1.0
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.3 3.6 1.0
22 Bol Bol PHX 3.5 1.8 0.5
23 Damion Lee PHX 2.4 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.