NBA games

HOU @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Postponed
Tip-off

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home ATL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Box score available after tip-off.

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Trae Young ATL
12%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
37%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.7 2.3 10.2
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 23.4 10.7 5.5
3 Jalen Green HOU 22.9 4.5 2.9
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 17.7 3.9 2.4
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.3 4.4 6.1
6 Amen Thompson HOU 16.0 9.4 3.6
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 15.1 4.5 2.2
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.9 4.9 4.0
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 11.7 2.7 2.9
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.7 4.1 1.3
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.7 3.7 1.6
12 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.0 7.2 1.4
13 Clint Capela ATL 9.3 7.6 1.4
14 Garrison Mathews ATL 8.8 3.1 1.7
15 Vit Krejci ATL 8.3 3.1 3.1
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.7 2.6 1.0
17 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.4 1.7 1.1
18 David Roddy ATL 4.0 1.5 0.7
19 Steven Adams HOU 3.8 6.0 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.