NBA games

BKN @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
105–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN36232026105
DEN32332930124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home DEN
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 36 22 4 4
Tyrese Martin 32 19 4 2
Noah Clowney S 30 14 5 2
Ziaire Williams S 23 10 5 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 22 10 2 1
Nic Claxton S 27 10 6 1
Ben Simmons S 22 10 4 7
Day'Ron Sharpe 19 7 5 3
Reece Beekman 12 3 1 2
Jalen Wilson 17 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 35 12 15
Russell Westbrook S 36 25 11 10
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 17 6 1
Julian Strawther 31 12 1 0
Christian Braun S 29 11 7 0
Peyton Watson 35 10 7 5
Jamal Murray S 16 7 0 3
Jalen Pickett 10 5 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 10 2 4 0
Hunter Tyson 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Noah Clowney · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Noah Clowney makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Ben Simmons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
3 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
4 Keon Johnson BKN
8%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
6 DeAndre Jordan DEN
7%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
7%
8 Christian Braun DEN
6%
9 D'Angelo Russell BKN
6%
10 Cameron Johnson BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
58%
Jumper
18%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.1 11.2 10.3
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 22.3 4.2 3.8
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.1 4.5 6.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.7 5.7 2.5
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.8 6.6 7.3
6 Keon Johnson BKN 14.8 4.6 3.1
7 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.4 3.2 5.7
8 Noah Clowney BKN 12.7 4.5 1.7
9 Christian Braun DEN 12.3 4.2 2.6
10 Nic Claxton BKN 11.1 7.9 1.8
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.8 3.2 2.0
12 Tyrese Martin BKN 10.0 4.6 2.2
13 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 3.0 1.5
14 Peyton Watson DEN 9.7 3.9 1.6
15 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.6 4.2 1.9
16 Ben Simmons BKN 7.4 3.9 6.7
17 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 6.6 1.4
18 Dario Saric DEN 5.1 3.4 1.7
19 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 4.9 2.8 0.7
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 4.4 0.9
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.3 1.8
22 Reece Beekman BKN 3.1 1.3 0.9
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.1 1.6 0.7
24 Trey Alexander DEN 2.3 0.9 0.7
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.2 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.