NBA games

WSH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
105–138
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH26322423105
CHI36324129138

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHI
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 24 22 2 2
Jared Butler 21 18 6 4
Kyshawn George 26 12 4 2
Alex Sarr S 26 11 11 1
Justin Champagnie 11 11 2 1
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 7 2 5
Jonas Valanciunas 15 6 9 1
Kyle Kuzma S 21 5 5 3
Johnny Davis 6 5 0 0
Richaun Holmes 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 33 33 5 3
Nikola Vucevic S 27 23 13 6
Coby White S 28 15 4 6
Jalen Smith 17 15 6 4
Lonzo Ball 22 12 1 6
Talen Horton-Tucker 15 12 3 3
Josh Giddey S 32 12 13 7
Matas Buzelis 16 8 3 0
Jevon Carter 4 4 1 0
Julian Phillips 13 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
17%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
9%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
6 Coby White CHI
8%
7 Zach LaVine CHI
7%
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
7%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
75%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
1%
Jumper
16%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 25.8 5.0 6.0
2 Jordan Poole WSH 24.3 4.2 5.6
3 Coby White CHI 21.6 3.6 5.5
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.0 11.1 3.8
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 16.4 5.9 4.8
6 Alex Sarr WSH 15.7 7.0 3.1
7 Josh Giddey CHI 14.3 8.5 6.6
8 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.1 4.9 2.4
9 Corey Kispert WSH 13.2 3.1 2.3
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 13.2 9.4 2.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 11.4 3.5 4.4
12 Patrick Williams CHI 11.2 3.4 2.4
13 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.4 6.1 1.4
14 Jared Butler WSH 8.9 2.2 3.3
15 Kyshawn George WSH 8.0 3.9 1.7
16 Jalen Smith CHI 8.0 5.6 1.2
17 Lonzo Ball CHI 7.3 4.0 3.8
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.8 2.4 1.5
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.9 2.0 0.8
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.4 1.1
21 Matas Buzelis CHI 4.3 2.7 0.8
22 Dalen Terry CHI 4.2 1.7 1.4
23 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.7 3.6 0.5
24 Chris Duarte CHI 3.5 1.7 0.9
25 Johnny Davis WSH 3.1 1.6 0.6
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.8 1.5 0.6
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.7 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.