NBA games

OKC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
126–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC31393224126
NY17263127101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home NY
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 39 3 2
Isaiah Joe 30 31 1 2
Jalen Williams S 33 19 4 5
Aaron Wiggins 22 8 5 1
Luguentz Dort S 23 6 5 2
Cason Wallace S 30 6 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 30 6 9 6
Kenrich Williams 22 5 7 0
Branden Carlson 2 3 0 0
Jaylin Williams 15 3 10 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 33 27 1 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 29 23 10 1
Josh Hart S 30 16 13 2
Cameron Payne 15 11 2 0
Miles McBride 20 7 5 5
OG Anunoby S 36 4 3 2
Landry Shamet 15 3 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 6 2 1 0
Matt Ryan 2 2 1 0
Tyler Kolek 2 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 OG Anunoby NY
10%
7 Luguentz Dort OKC
10%
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
9 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
35%
Jumper
18%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.3 5.4 6.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 25.9 3.4 7.2
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.7 12.4 4.0
4 Jalen Williams OKC 20.6 5.7 6.1
5 Josh Hart NY 16.8 10.9 5.8
6 Mikal Bridges NY 15.5 3.4 3.0
7 OG Anunoby NY 15.4 4.6 1.7
8 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 12.8 11.0 4.1
9 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.4 3.6 1.4
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 9.1 2.9 1.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.3 2.7 2.5
12 Miles McBride NY 6.6 2.4 2.6
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.2 2.4 1.2
14 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.9 2.6 1.2
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 5.1 1.1
16 Alex Caruso OKC 5.4 2.3 1.9
17 Cameron Payne NY 5.0 1.3 1.8
18 Jaylin Williams OKC 4.5 2.7 1.6
19 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 1.4 0.8
20 Alex Ducas OKC 3.6 1.4 0.6
21 Jericho Sims NY 2.4 2.5 0.7
22 Matt Ryan NY 2.2 1.0 0.5
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.2 1.0 0.7
24 Jacob Toppin NY 2.1 1.1 0.6
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.5 1.3 0.4
26 Branden Carlson OKC 1.1 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.