NBA games

SAC @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
114–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC34192338114
BOS2728212197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 40 24 4 9
Domantas Sabonis S 39 23 28 3
Malik Monk S 37 22 3 8
Keegan Murray S 37 19 3 0
Devin Carter 17 11 4 1
Trey Lyles 28 7 11 3
Keon Ellis S 23 6 3 2
Kevin Huerter 19 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 28 1 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 29 22 10 0
Jayson Tatum S 35 15 12 5
Payton Pritchard 27 9 2 2
Sam Hauser 13 7 2 1
Luke Kornet 15 6 6 2
Jrue Holiday S 28 5 5 2
Derrick White S 27 3 1 3
Al Horford 23 2 4 1
Xavier Tillman 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 5-foot hook shot (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
11%
4 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Malik Monk SAC
9%
7 Al Horford BOS
8%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
41%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.1 9.7 5.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.8 5.6 5.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 19.4 16.1 6.4
4 Malik Monk SAC 19.3 4.1 5.8
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.4 4.0 3.4
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.7 6.4 2.0
7 Derrick White BOS 16.5 4.2 3.4
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.3 4.0 3.8
9 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.7 3.6 3.2
10 Keegan Murray SAC 9.8 5.9 1.1
11 Al Horford BOS 8.6 5.6 1.8
12 Keon Ellis SAC 8.1 2.9 1.6
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.5 4.4 1.1
14 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.7 2.8 1.5
15 Sam Hauser BOS 5.9 2.3 1.3
16 Devin Carter SAC 5.3 4.8 1.8
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.3 5.8 1.2
18 Neemias Queta BOS 5.3 3.2 0.7
19 Doug McDermott SAC 3.5 0.8 0.5
20 Jae Crowder SAC 2.7 1.8 0.5
21 Jaden Springer BOS 2.4 1.3 0.6
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.3 0.5
23 Alex Len SAC 2.3 2.2 0.8
24 Isaac Jones SAC 2.1 1.2 0.2
25 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.6 0.6 0.6
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.5 1.0 0.3
27 Colby Jones SAC 1.1 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.