NBA games

NO @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
123115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO28253436123
PHI24233137115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home PHI
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 35 38 3 3
Jordan Hawkins S 31 21 2 2
Dejounte Murray S 32 17 10 6
Jose Alvarado 23 13 2 9
Daniel Theis 18 12 4 0
Brandon Boston 23 11 2 0
Yves Missi S 30 9 7 0
Javonte Green S 26 2 7 6
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 22 0 7 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 30 6 12
Paul George S 35 25 11 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 21 7 1
Ricky Council IV 17 13 1 0
Reggie Jackson 7 7 2 0
Guerschon Yabusele S 31 6 7 0
Eric Gordon 15 6 2 1
Caleb Martin S 36 5 3 4
Jeff Dowtin Jr. 5 2 1 0
Adem Bona 14 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Layup (2 pts) · 9:56 Q1
"Paul George makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
14%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
12%
3 CJ McCollum NO
11%
4 Paul George PHI
11%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
6 Yves Missi NO
11%
7 Eric Gordon PHI
8%
8 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
7%
9 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
10 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 25.6 3.4 7.0
2 CJ McCollum NO 23.4 4.1 4.1
3 Dejounte Murray NO 19.2 6.3 8.6
4 Paul George PHI 17.6 5.9 4.4
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.3 7.0 2.4
6 Jose Alvarado NO 12.6 2.8 4.0
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 12.0 5.3 1.9
8 Caleb Martin PHI 11.0 4.5 2.0
9 Yves Missi NO 10.2 8.1 2.0
10 Brandon Boston NO 8.0 3.1 1.3
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 7.7 2.3 1.1
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 6.1 2.5 0.9
13 Eric Gordon PHI 5.8 1.5 1.1
14 Javonte Green NO 5.6 3.0 0.9
15 Antonio Reeves NO 5.5 1.6 1.0
16 Daniel Theis NO 5.1 5.1 1.5
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.9 3.6 1.2
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.6 6.4 0.7
19 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.2 1.7 1.2
20 Justin Edwards PHI 4.2 2.1 0.8
21 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.7 1.1
22 Jamal Cain NO 3.7 2.7 0.7
23 Adem Bona PHI 3.4 3.4 0.7
24 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.6 2.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.